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Crescita e vincolo esterno: quali strategie per promuovere stabilità macroeconomica, competitività e investimenti

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  • Fabrizio Onida

    (Università Bocconi,)

Abstract

A high share of foreign currency denomination of domestic public debt in rules out any recourse to inflation tax as an effective adjustment device. Anti- inflation policies based upon hard peg regimes may remove the exchange rate risk in the short run but - as pointed out by Argentina’s currency board crisis at the beginning of the current decade - cannot avoid the default risk, mirrored in the spread between yields on domestic bonds and benchmark bonds such as US Treasury Bills. Alternatively, for any degree of fiscal discipline, adjustable peg or freely floating exchange rate regimes may be successful only if the passthrough from a depreciating exchange to domestic prices and wages is kept under control. Temporary and well targeted controls on short-term external capital movements, such as those successfully managed by Chile and Malaysia, may help to overcome the most acute phase of crisis adjustment. Debt- for-equity swaps and their variants such as debt- for-development or debt- for-nature swaps, involving both public and private lenders, may give an effective although quite limited support to adjustment policies in over- indebted developing countries. strategies and oligopolistic rivalry.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Onida, 2004. "Crescita e vincolo esterno: quali strategie per promuovere stabilità macroeconomica, competitività e investimenti," KITeS Working Papers 157, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jul 2004.
  • Handle: RePEc:cri:cespri:wp157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier.
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    3. Ricardo J.Caballero, 2001. "Macroeconomic volatility in Latin America: a view and three case studies," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 28(1 Year 20), pages 5-52, June.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
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    8. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 197-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. De Gregorio, Jose & Edwards, Sebastian & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2000. "Controls on capital inflows: do they work?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-83, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; External and Internal Balance; Latin America;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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