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Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard: Quantitative Implications for Unemployment Insurance

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Abstract

I construct a dynamic contracting model of optimal unemployment insurance with adverse selection and moral hazard that captures the transition from unemployment to non-participation observed in the data, which the standard moral hazard model fails to capture. My model generates both qualitative and quantitative implications for the optimal provision of unemployment insurance. Qualitatively, for some agents, incentives in the optimal contract imply consumption increases over the duration of non-employment. Quantitatively, I compare the current U.S. system to the optimal one, and find large cost savings to adopting the optimal contract. The optimal contract achieves an additional 46% of cost savings relative to a planner who ignores adverse selection and focuses only on moral hazard. I also find the current transition from unemployment to non-participation to be efficient, and when compared to the current U.S. system, the optimal contract implies agents experiencing a long spell of non-participation have consumption increasing over the spell.

Suggested Citation

  • David L. Fuller, 2010. "Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard: Quantitative Implications for Unemployment Insurance," Working Papers 12004, Concordia University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:crd:wpaper:12004
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    Cited by:

    1. Cirelli, Fernando & Espino, Emilio & Sánchez, Juan M., 2021. "Designing unemployment insurance for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Imen Karaa, 2018. "Moral Hazard and Learning in the Tunisian Automobile Insurance Market: New Evidence from Dynamic Data," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 43(3), pages 560-589, July.
    3. Noureddine Benlagha & Imen Karaa, 2017. "Evidence of adverse selection in automobile insurance market: A seemingly unrelated probit modelling," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1330303-133, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment insurance; non-participation; adverse selection; moral hazard; dynamic contracts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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