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Modeling medical material shortage using Markov processes

Author

Listed:
  • Alexis Roussel

    (Université de Franche-Comté, CRESE, F-25000 Besançon, France)

  • Romain Biard

    (Université de Franche-Comté, LMB UMR 6623, F-25000 Besançon, France)

  • Marc Deschamps

    (Université de Franche-Comté, CRESE, F-25000 Besançon, France)

  • Mostapha Diss

    (Université de Franche-Comté, CRESE, F-25000 Besançon, France)

Abstract

The management and allocation of health resources, in particular equipment such as ventilators, has been the object of significant interest by a health community that is concerned to avoid new shortages. In this article, we develop a Markov chain based model considering random arrivals and discharges of patients in an intensive care unit requiring ventilator support. We provide a methodology in order to compute the ex- act probability distribution of the time-shortage, which is the moment where no more ventilators are available. We propose two applications of this model: a preventive traffic signal and a tool to evaluate purchasing decisions. A calibration of parameters based on real empirical data from a French hospital is carried out in order to test the operational use of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexis Roussel & Romain Biard & Marc Deschamps & Mostapha Diss, 2023. "Modeling medical material shortage using Markov processes," Working Papers 2023-04, CRESE.
    • Handle: RePEc:crb:wpaper:2023-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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