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Finance, Governments, and Trade

  • Bertola, Giuseppe
  • Lo Prete, Anna

We study how financial transactions may respond to exogenous variation in trade opportunities not only directly, but also through policy channels. In more open economies, governments may find it more difficult to fund and enforce public policies that substitute private financial transactions, and more appealing to deregulate financial markets. We propose a simple theoretical model of such policy-mediated relationships between trade and financial development. Empirically, we document in a country panel dataset that, before the 2007-08 crisis, financial market volumes were robustly and negatively related to the share of government consumption in GDP in regressions that also include indicators of financial regulation and trade openness, and we seek support for a causal interpretation of this result in instrumental variable specifications.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9338.

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Date of creation: Feb 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9338
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  1. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
  2. Agell, Jonas, 2001. "On the Determinants of Labour Market Institutions: Rent Seeking vs. Social Insurance," Research Papers in Economics 2001:12, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  3. Paolo Epifani & Gino Gancia, 2005. "Openness, government size and the terms of trade," Economics Working Papers 915, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2008.
  4. Raj Chetty & Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Optimal Taxation and Social Insurance with Endogenous Private Insurance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 85-114, May.
  5. Dani Rodrik, 1997. "Has Globalization Gone Too Far?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 57.
  6. John Shea, 1997. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 348-352, May.
  7. Ashoka Mody & Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Financial Reform; What Shakes it? What Shapes it?," IMF Working Papers 03/70, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Beck, Thorsten, 2001. "Financial development and international trade : is there a link?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2608, The World Bank.
  9. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-deSilanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2000. "Government Ownership of Banks," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1890, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  10. repec:hrv:faseco:4553014 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2006. "Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 97-126, July.
  12. Bertola, Giuseppe & Lo Prete, Anna, 2008. "Openness, financial markets, and policies: Cross-country and dynamic patterns," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/55, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  13. Thierry Tressel & Enrica Detragiache, 2008. "Do Financial Sector Reforms Lead to Financial Development? Evidence from a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 08/265, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2006. "Comparative advantage, demand for external finance, and financial development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3889, The World Bank.
  15. Enrica Detragiache & Abdul Abiad & Thierry Tressel, 2008. "A New Database of Financial Reforms," IMF Working Papers 08/266, International Monetary Fund.
  16. John Armour & Simon Deakin & Priya Lele & Mathias Siems, 2009. "How Do Legal Rules Evolve? Evidence from a cross-country Comparison of Shareholder, Creditor and Worker Protection," ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers wp382, ESRC Centre for Business Research.
  17. Svaleryd, Helena & Vlachos, Jonas, 2002. "Markets for risk and openness to trade: how are they related?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 369-395, August.
  18. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Zingales, Luigi, 2003. "The great reversals: the politics of financial development in the twentieth century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-50, July.
  19. repec:adr:anecst:y:2009:i:95-96:p:09 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1999. "The Quality of Government," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 222-79, April.
  21. Bertola, Giuseppe & Koeniger, Winfried, 2007. "Consumption Smoothing and Income Redistribution," CEPR Discussion Papers 6051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  23. Alesina, Alberto & Wacziarg, Romain, 1998. "Openness, country size and government," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 305-321, September.
  24. Yongfu Huang & Jonathan Temple, 2005. "Does external trade promote financial development?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 05/575, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
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