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Finance, Governments, and Trade

  • Bertola, Giuseppe
  • Lo Prete, Anna

We study how financial transactions may respond to exogenous variation in trade opportunities not only directly, but also through policy channels. In more open economies, governments may find it more difficult to fund and enforce public policies that substitute private financial transactions, and more appealing to deregulate financial markets. We propose a simple theoretical model of such policy-mediated relationships between trade and financial development. Empirically, we document in a country panel dataset that, before the 2007-08 crisis, financial market volumes were robustly and negatively related to the share of government consumption in GDP in regressions that also include indicators of financial regulation and trade openness, and we seek support for a causal interpretation of this result in instrumental variable specifications.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9338.

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Date of creation: Feb 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9338
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  1. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2007. "Comparative advantage, demand for external finance, and financial development," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 796-834, December.
  2. Bertola, Giuseppe & Lo Prete, Anna, 2008. "Openness, Financial Markets, and Policies: Cross-Country and Dynamic Patterns," CEPR Discussion Papers 7048, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Svaleryd, Helena & Vlachos, Jonas, 2002. "Markets for risk and openness to trade: how are they related?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 369-395, August.
  4. Raj Chetty & Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Optimal Taxation and Social Insurance with Endogenous Private Insurance," NBER Chapters, in: Income Taxation, Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), pages 85-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  6. Abdul Abiad & Ashoka Mody, 2005. "Financial Reform: What Shakes It? What Shapes It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 66-88, March.
  7. Abdul Abiad & Enrica Detragiache & Thierry Tressel, 2010. "A New Database of Financial Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 281-302, June.
  8. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125515 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Paolo Epifani & Gino Gancia, 2008. "Openness, Government Size and the Terms of Trade," IEW - Working Papers 359, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  10. John Shea, 1996. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," NBER Technical Working Papers 0193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Wacziarg, Romain & Alesina, Alberto, 1998. "Openness, Country Size and Government," Scholarly Articles 4553014, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  12. John Armour & Simon Deakin & Priya Lele & Mathias Siems, 2009. "How Do Legal Rules Evolve? Evidence from a cross-country Comparison of Shareholder, Creditor and Worker Protection," ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers wp382, ESRC Centre for Business Research.
  13. La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1999. "The Quality of Government," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 222-79, April.
  14. Rodrik, Dani, 1996. "Why do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Beck, Thorsten, 2001. "Financial development and international trade : is there a link?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2608, The World Bank.
  16. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-deSilanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2000. "Government Ownership of Banks," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1890, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  17. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Zingales, Luigi, 2003. "The great reversals: the politics of financial development in the twentieth century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-50, July.
  18. Bertola, Giuseppe & Koeniger, Winfried, 2007. "Consumption smoothing and income redistribution," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1941-1958, November.
  19. Yongfu Huang & Jonathan Temple, 2005. "Does external trade promote financial development?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 05/575, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
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