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Sovereign Debt Rating Changes and the Stock Market

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  • Michaelides, Alexander
  • Milidonis, Andreas
  • Nishiotis, George
  • Papakyriacou, Panayiotis

Abstract

Using event studies we find statistically and economically significant, negative daily abnormal stock market returns prior to sovereign debt rating downgrade announcements. Instrumental variable techniques show that these findings are more pronounced in countries with lower institutional quality. Our analysis of the frequency and content of news shows that results cannot be explained away by unrelated, concurrent bad news. Instead, we find support for the explanation of leakage, which could take the form of leaked private information to a group of investors, but could also take the form of a rumor that eventually appears in the public domain.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaelides, Alexander & Milidonis, Andreas & Nishiotis, George & Papakyriacou, Panayiotis, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Rating Changes and the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 8743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8743
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani & Xin Zhao, 2013. "Emerging Countries Sovereign Rating Adjustment using Market Information: Impact on Financial Institutions Investment Decisions," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00820839, HAL.
    2. Mink, Mark & de Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 102-113.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    event studies; institutional quality.; international finance; sovereign ratings; TRMI;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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