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Emerging Countries Sovereign Rating Adjustment using Market Information: Impact on Financial Institution Investment Decisions

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Abstract

Assets, debts and other financial products issued by emerging countries are usually considered more speculative than those issued by developed economies. Therefore, relying on traditional rating agencies to invest in these countries is problematic as the information used to assess the economic and market condition in these economies is quickly outdated. Consequently, both the investment opportunities and the necessity to clear particular positions may be missed, respectively resulting in potential significant costs of opportunity or losses. Therefore, an approach taking into account the latest information displayed by financial markets may enable us bypassing the traditional limits. As a result, this chapter proposes a creditworthiness evaluation methodology based on adjusting ratings obtained from macroeconomic fundamentals (GDP growth rate, inflation, external debts, etc.) and financial market movements (bonds, equity volume, volatility, etc). In the first step, a general panel model is applied on country-specific information to generate fundamental ratings. In the second step, applying a multi-factor model to market indicators and breaking down long-term sovereign bond yields into different risk premia, market implied ratings are obtained. Finally, the rating to be considered (denoted “?-Rating”) for investment purposes is a combination of fundamental ratings and market implied ratings carrying out an adapted Bühlmann-Straub method (Credibility Theory). Then, emerging countries “?-Rating” will be compared to those obtained from developed countries and discussed against financial institutions risk appetite

Suggested Citation

  • Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K. Hassani & Xin Zhao, 2013. "Emerging Countries Sovereign Rating Adjustment using Market Information: Impact on Financial Institution Investment Decisions," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13034, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:13034
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    1. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
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    4. Michaelides, Alexander & Milidonis, Andreas & Nishiotis, George & Papakyriacou, Panayiotis, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Rating Changes and the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 8743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Baek, In-Mee & Bandopadhyaya, Arindam & Du, Chan, 2005. "Determinants of market-assessed sovereign risk: Economic fundamentals or market risk appetite?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 533-548, June.
    6. Constantin Mellios & Eric Paget-Blanc, 2006. "Which factors determine sovereign credit ratings?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 361-377.
    7. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    8. Manfred Gärtner & Björn Griesbach & Florian Jung, 2011. "PIGS or Lambs? The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Role of Rating Agencies," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 288-299, August.
    9. G. Ferri & L.-G. Liu & J. E. Stiglitz, 1999. "The Procyclical Role of Rating Agencies: Evidence from the East Asian Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 335-355, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bertrand K. Hassani, 2014. "Risk Appetite in Practice: Vulgaris Mathematica," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01020293, HAL.
    2. repec:eee:finana:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:209-225 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2015. "Risk or Regulatory Capital? Bringing distributions back in the foreground," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01169268, HAL.
    4. Dominique Gu�gan & Bertrand Hassani, 2015. "Risk or Regulatory Capital? Bringing distributions back in the foreground," Working Papers 2015:18, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    5. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K Hassani, 2015. "Risk or Regulatory Capital? Bringing distributions back in the foreground," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15046, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    6. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2014. "Stress Testing Engineering: the real risk measurement?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00951593, HAL.
    7. Bertrand K Hassani, 2014. "Risk Appetite in Practice: Vulgaris Mathematica," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14037, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    8. repec:hal:journl:halshs-01169268 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; rating; Panel model; multi-factor regression; credibility theory;

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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