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Business Cycles with Free Entry Ruled by Animal Spirits

  • Dos Santos Ferreira, Rodolphe
  • Lloyd-Braga, Teresa

The Paper approaches business cycles in terms of extrinsic uncertainty related, not to dynamic indeterminacy of intertemporal equilibria (in the neighborhood of an attractor) or to multiplicity of steady states (in non-linear models), but to static indeterminacy of free entry oligopolistic equilibria within each period. We consider an OLG economy in which firms, supplying differentiated goods within each one of many sectors, and producing under increasing returns-to-scale, compete in prices in perfectly contestable markets. The number of active firms is shown to vary across sectoral equilibria, depending upon the (correct) producers’ conjectures on the actions of their competitors. These conjectures are assumed to be coordinated by some extrinsic Markov chain, thus generating endogenous shocks in both the markup factor and productivity, and resulting in perturbations of the dynamic system (as in the case of exogenous random shocks). Consumers’ expectations may magnify the extrinsic uncertainty characterizing producers’ conjectures. Since the source of fluctuations does not rely on dynamic indeterminacy, we can weaken the condition on the degree of increasing returns, which may be arbitrarily small (with a moderate positive elasticity of labour supply), provided goods substitutability within each sector becomes arbitrarily large.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3919.

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Date of creation: Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3919
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  1. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
  2. Claude D’Aspremont & Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira & Louis-Andre Gerard-Varet, 2000. "Contestability and the Indeterminacy of Free-Entry Equilibria," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 72-83, 03.
  3. Murphy, Kevin M. & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Scholarly Articles 3606235, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Benhabib Jess & Rustichini Aldo, 1994. "Introduction to the Symposium on Growth, Fluctuations, and Sunspots: Confronting the Data," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-18, June.
  5. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
  6. Weder, Mark, 2000. "Animal spirits, technology shocks and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 273-295, February.
  7. Perli, Roberto, 1998. "Indeterminacy, home production, and the business cycle: A calibrated analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 105-125, February.
  8. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1994. "Are apparent productive spillovers a figment of specification error?," International Finance Discussion Papers 463, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Jaimovich, Nir, 2007. "Firm dynamics and markup variations: Implications for sunspot equilibria and endogenous economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 300-325, November.
  10. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1996. "Indeterminacy and Sector-Specific Externalities," Working Papers 96-12, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  11. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira & Frédéric Dufourt, 2007. "Free entry equilibria with positive profits: A unified approach to quantity and price competition games," Post-Print halshs-00796163, HAL.
  13. repec:adr:anecst:y:1995:i:37-38:p:19 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Cooper, Russell, 1989. "Multiplicity of Equilibria and Fluctuations in Dynamic Imperfectly Competitive Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 353-57, May.
  15. Barinci, Jean-Paul & Cheron, Arnaud, 2001. "Sunspots and the Business Cycle in a Finance Constrained Economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 30-49, March.
  16. Dos Santos Ferreira, Rodolphe & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa, 2005. "Non-linear endogenous fluctuations with free entry and variable markups," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 847-871, May.
  17. Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell Cooper, 1993. "Entry and Exit, Product Variety and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 4562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, 1999. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Dynamics of Output, Hours, and Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 2315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
  20. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 64, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  21. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1998. "Introduction to Market Psychology and Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 1-13, May.
  22. Benhabib, Jess, 1998. "Introduction to Sunspots in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-6, July.
  23. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
  24. Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira & Frederic Dufourt, 2006. "Free entry and business cycles under the influence of animal spirits," Post-Print halshs-00789030, HAL.
  25. repec:adr:anecst:y:1995:i:37-38:p:17 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell Cooper & B. Ravikumar, 1993. "Strategic Complementarity in Business Formation: Aggregate Fluctuations and Sunspot Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 795-811.
  27. Cazzavillan, Guido, 2001. "Indeterminacy and Endogenous Fluctuations with Arbitrarily Small Externalities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 133-157, November.
  28. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1996. "Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications," International Finance Discussion Papers 546, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. William Novshek, 1980. "Cournot Equilibrium with Free Entry," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 473-486.
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