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Outsiders In Economic Integration: The Case of a Transition Economy

  • Manzocchi, Stefano
  • Ottaviano, Gianmarco

We use a spatial model of endogenous growth to investigate the likely impact of discriminatory integration among two advanced insider countries on their own welfare as well as on the welfare of an outsider transition economy. A first point is that, since convergence in per capita income levels depends on relative market access and local market size, piece-wise integration causes insider-outsider divergence. Nonetheless, outsiders can gain in absolute terms if integration fosters the global growth rate. We also show that exclusion from a regional agreement and ongoing transition have unpredictable joint effects on the structural adjustment, which might even exhibit a swinging behaviour. Such swings may imply large adjustment costs, which can be reduced by careful integration design. In this respect, the asymmetric phasing-out of trade barriers built into the Europe Agreements seems to work in the right direction.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2385.

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Date of creation: Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2385
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  1. Martin, Philippe & Ottaviano, Gianmarco, 1996. "Growing Locations: Industry Location in a Model of Endogenous Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1523, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Baldwin, Richard, 1998. "Agglomeration and Endogenous Capital," CEPR Discussion Papers 1845, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  4. Micael Castanheira De Moura & Gérard Roland, 2000. "The optimal speed of transition: a general equilibrium analysis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
  6. Baldwin, Richard E. & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Regional economic integration," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1597-1644 Elsevier.
  7. Grafe, Clemens & Wyplosz, Charles, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 1773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June.
  9. Baldwin, R.E. & Forslid, R. & Haaland, J.I., 1995. "Investment Creation and Investment Diversion: Simulation Analysis of the Single Market Programme," Papers 23/95, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
  10. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
  11. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, June.
  12. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 1996. "The Location Effects of Isolation," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 132(III), pages 427-440, September.
  13. Brenton, Paul & Di Mauro, Francesca, 1999. "The Potential Magnitude and Impact of FDI flows to CEECs," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 14, pages 59-74.
  14. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Diego Puga, 1998. "Agglomeration in the Global Economy: A Survey of the 'New Economic Geography'," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(6), pages 707-731, 08.
  15. Richard E. Baldwin & Rikard Forslid & Jan I. Haaland, 1996. "Investment Creation and Diversion in Europe," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(6), pages 635-659, November.
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