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Hyperinflation and Stabilization: Cagan Revisited

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  • Miller, Marcus
  • Zhang, Lei

Abstract

Using a variant of the Cagan model with rational expectations, this paper shows that expected stabilization can result in a budget deficit in excess of the maximum inflation tax. A cap on the deficit dampens inflation expectations and raises real balances, thus increasing the yield of the inflation tax for any given rate of inflation. This study extends the work of Drazen and Helpman (1990) by including a stochastic budgetary process and using option pricing theory. It uses parameter values of the semi-elasticity of demand for money to provide estimates of the maximum viable real deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 1996. "Hyperinflation and Stabilization: Cagan Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 1513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1513
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davies, Gareth & Vines, David, 1995. "Equilibrium Currency Crises: Are Multiple Equilibria Self-fulfilling or History Dependent?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1239, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 1996. "Optimal target zones: How an exchange rate mechanism can improve upon discretion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1641-1660.
    3. Loungani, Prakash & Sheets, Nathan, 1997. "Central Bank Independence, Inflation, and Growth in Transition Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 381-399, August.
    4. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    5. Paul Krugman & Marcus Miller, 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug92-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Atanas Christev, 2006. "Learning Hyperinflations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 475, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Atanas Christev, 2005. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand (or Cagan Revisited): Some New Empirical Evidence from the 1990s," CERT Discussion Papers 0507, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Stabilization; Hyperinflation; Seigniorage; Stochastic Deficits;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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