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Hyperinflation and Stabilisation: Cagan Revisited

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  • Miller, Marcus
  • Zhang, Lei

Abstract

Using a variant of the Cagan (1956) model with rational expectations, this paper shows that expected stabilization can result in a budget deficit in excess of the maximum inflation tax. A cap on the deficit dampens inflation expectations and raises real balances, thus increasing the yield of the inflation tax for any given rate of inflation. This study extends the work of Alan Drazen and Elhanan Helpman (1990) by including a stochastic budgetary process and using option pricing theory. It uses parameter values of the semielasticity of demand for money to provide estimates of the maximum viable real deficit. Copyright 1997 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 1997. "Hyperinflation and Stabilisation: Cagan Revisited," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 441-454, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:107:y:1997:i:441:p:441-54
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davies, Gareth & Vines, David, 1995. "Equilibrium Currency Crises: Are Multiple Equilibria Self-fulfilling or History Dependent?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1239, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 1996. "Optimal target zones: How an exchange rate mechanism can improve upon discretion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1641-1660.
    3. Loungani, Prakash & Sheets, Nathan, 1997. "Central Bank Independence, Inflation, and Growth in Transition Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 381-399, August.
    4. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    5. Paul Krugman & Marcus Miller, 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug92-1, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Atanas Christev, 2006. "Learning Hyperinflations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 475, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Atanas Christev, 2005. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand (or Cagan Revisited): Some New Empirical Evidence from the 1990s," CERT Discussion Papers 0507, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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