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Robust estimation of the VAT pass-through in the Netherlands

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Mellens

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Hendrik Vrijburg

    (EUR)

  • Jonneke Dijkstra

    (EUR)

Abstract

This paper introduces the Common Correlated Effects Estimator into the study of Value-Added-Tax pass-through and compares this method to various other methodologies used in the literature. To this end, we study two Value-Added-Tax increases in the Netherlands, in January 2001 and October 2012. We show that the Common Correlated Effects Estimator produces robust estimates, especially when divergent macroeconomic trends make identification more difficult. Furthermore, we show that the choice of the control group is of lesser importance once sufficient control variables are included. Our results indicate, in accordance with most findings in the literature, that we cannot reject the null-hypothesis of a full pass-through for both Dutch tax-hikes.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Mellens & Hendrik Vrijburg & Jonneke Dijkstra, 2014. "Robust estimation of the VAT pass-through in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 297, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:297
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Smart & Richard M. Bird, 2009. "The Economic Incidence of Replacing a Retail Sales Tax with a Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Canadian Experience," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 35(1), pages 85-97, March.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    3. Richard Blundell, 2009. "Assessing the Temporary VAT Cut Policy in the UK," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 31-38, March.
    4. Clément Carbonnier, 2005. "Is Tax Shifting Asymmetric? Evidence from French VAT reforms, 1995-2000," PSE Working Papers halshs-00590719, HAL.
    5. Mr. Stephan Danninger & Ms. Alina Carare, 2008. "Inflation Smoothing and the Modest Effect of VAT in Germany," IMF Working Papers 2008/175, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jonathan R. Kesselman, 2011. "Consumer Impacts of BC's Harmonized Sales Tax: Tax Grab or Pass-Through?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 37(2), pages 139-162, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Egbert Jongen & Arjan Lejour & Gabriella Massenz, 2018. "Cheaper and More Haircuts After VAT Cut? Evidence from the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 166(2), pages 135-154, June.
    2. Mauro Mastrogiacomo & Nicole M. Bosch & Miriam D. A. C. Gielen & Egbert L. W. Jongen, 2017. "Heterogeneity in Labour Supply Responses: Evidence from a Major Tax Reform," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(5), pages 769-796, October.
    3. Ván, Bálint & Oláh, Dániel, 2018. "Does VAT Cut Appear on the Menu? – The Consumer Price Impact of Hungarian VAT Decreases of 2016–2017," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 63(3), pages 355-375.
    4. Egbert Jongen & Arjan Lejour & Gabriella Massenz, 2018. "Cheaper and More Haircuts After VAT Cut? Evidence from the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 166(2), pages 135-154, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence

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