IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cop/wpaper/g-321.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling the economic effects of increased drop-out rates from high school

Author

Listed:
  • Peter B. Dixon
  • Maureen T. Rimmer
  • Scott Farrow

Abstract

With Covid, high-school students are having difficulty staying in school. We present a dynamic model of the effects of increased drop-out rates. The model accounts for labor productivity, crime costs and high-school savings. We simulate a 25 per cent increase in drop-out rates occurring in the two years starting September 2019, with a gradual return to pre-Covid rates in 2025. Our results show a loss of 597,000 high-school graduations from cohorts entering high-school in 2016-2024. The present-value cost is between $42 and $137 billion, depending on discount rates. These results support investment in high-school retention policies through the Covid crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer & Scott Farrow, 2021. "Modeling the economic effects of increased drop-out rates from high school," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-321, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-321
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-321.pdf
    File Function: Initial version, 2021-09
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-321.htm
    File Function: Local abstract: may link to additional material.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Grossman, 2015. "The Relationship between Health and Schooling: What’s New?," NBER Working Papers 21609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lance Lochner & Enrico Moretti, 2004. "The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 155-189, March.
    3. Scott Farrow, 2011. "Incorporating Equity in Regulatory and Benefit‐Cost Analysis Using Risk‐Based Preferences," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(6), pages 902-907, June.
    4. Aidan R. Vining & David L. Weimer, 2019. "The Value of High School Graduation in the United States: Per-Person Shadow Price Estimates for Use in Cost–Benefit Analysis," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-15, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abrahamsen, Signe A. & Ginja, Rita & Riise, Julie, 2021. "School Health Programs: Education, Health, and Welfare Dependency of Young Adults," IZA Discussion Papers 14546, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Titus J. Galama & Adriana Lleras-Muney & Hans van Kippersluis, 2018. "The Effect of Education on Health and Mortality: A Review of Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Evidence," NBER Working Papers 24225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. van Ours, Jan C. & Williams, Jenny & Ward, Shannon, 2015. "Bad Behavior: Delinquency, Arrest and Early School Leaving," CEPR Discussion Papers 10755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Elizabeth M. Caucutt & Lance Lochner & Youngmin Park, 2017. "Correlation, Consumption, Confusion, or Constraints: Why Do Poor Children Perform so Poorly?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 119(1), pages 102-147, January.
    5. Anne McDaniel & Thomas DiPrete & Claudia Buchmann & Uri Shwed, 2011. "The Black Gender Gap in Educational Attainment: Historical Trends and Racial Comparisons," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 889-914, August.
    6. Gordon Dahl, 2010. "Early teen marriage and future poverty," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(3), pages 689-718, August.
    7. Emanuela di Gropello, 2006. "Meeting the Challenges of Secondary Education in Latin America and East Asia : Improving Efficiency and Resource Mobilization," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7173, December.
    8. Chen, Yuanyuan & Feng, Shuaizhang & Han, Yujie, 2020. "The effect of primary school type on the high school opportunities of migrant children in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 325-338.
    9. Gregorio Gimenez & Luis Vargas-Montoya, 2021. "ICT Use and Successful Learning: The Role of the Stock of Human Capital," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-15, July.
    10. Grönqvist, Hans & Niknami, Susan, 2014. "Alcohol availability and crime: Lessons from liberalized weekend sales restrictions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 77-84.
    11. Elad DeMalach & Analia Schlosser, 2024. "Short- and Long-Term Effects of Universal Preschool: Evidence from the Arab Population in Israel," CESifo Working Paper Series 10904, CESifo.
    12. Giulio Fella & Giovanni Gallipoli, 2014. "Education and Crime over the Life Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(4), pages 1484-1517.
    13. John B. Loomis, 2013. "Incorporating distributional issues into benefit–cost analysis: why, how, and two empirical examples using non-market valuation," Chapters, in: Scott O. Farrow & Richard Zerbe, Jr. (ed.), Principles and Standards for Benefit–Cost Analysis, chapter 9, pages 294-316, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Kai Hong & Peter A. Savelyev & Kegon T. K. Tan, 2020. "Understanding the Mechanisms Linking College Education with Longevity," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(3), pages 371-400.
    15. Kevin C. Bastian & Gary T. Henry & Charles L. Thompson, 2013. "Incorporating Access to More Effective Teachers into Assessments of Educational Resource Equity," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 560-580, October.
    16. Kikuchi, Nobuyoshi, 2014. "The effect of instructional time reduction on educational attainment: Evidence from the Japanese curriculum standards revision," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 17-41.
    17. Montolio, Daniel & Planells-Struse, Simón, 2015. "When police patrols matter. The effect of police proximity on citizens’ crime risk perception," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 73-93.
    18. Antonio Ciccone & Giovanni Peri, 2005. "Long-Run Substitutability Between More and Less Educated Workers: Evidence from U.S. States, 1950-1990," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 652-663, November.
    19. Chloe Gibbs & Jens Ludwig & Douglas L. Miller, 2011. "Does Head Start Do Any Lasting Good?," NBER Working Papers 17452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Thomas Lemieux, 2014. "Occupations, fields of study and returns to education," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1047-1077, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid and high-school drop-out rates; dynamic model of student numbers; educational attainment of workforce; cost of reduced high-school graduation rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-321. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Horridge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cpmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.