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El homicido en Barranquilla: Una lectura espacial

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  • Néstor Garza P.
  • Leonardo Nieto A.
  • Mábel Gutiérrez

Abstract

This document makes a geographical and statistical analysis of homicide rates in Barranquilla. The research deals with the spatial diffusion patterns, as so as the correlation between the police forcepresence measured through CAI (Local Police Stations) by community and the homicide rate for the period 2002-2008, taking into account a spatial correlated control variable, namely the zones that reached over the average violence levels. Econometric analysis confirmed a reduction in the probability that each community gets over the average violence levels when the police force presence increases, and the marginally decreasing type of this relation. It was detected that there is a deepest relation between the variables in the case of the homicide related to stealing. The results are used in a simulation of cost minimizing public force presence scenarios.Este trabajo presenta una aproximación de corte geográfico y estadístico a la problemática del homicidio en la ciudad de Barranquilla. El estudio se concentra en los patrones espaciales dedifusión del fenómeno, asimismo en un análisis que correlaciona la presencia de la fuerza pública en la ciudad, medida por la cantidad de Comandos de Atención Inmediata (CAI) de la Policía por barrio, con la tasa de homicidio para el período 2002-2008, así como con una variable espacial de control relacionada con las zonas que alcanzaron mayores tasas que el promedio de la ciudad. El análisis econométrico confirma que la presencia de la fuerza pública reduce la probabilidad de que cada barrio considerado individualmente tenga mayores tasas de homicidio; de igual manera evidencia el carácter marginalmente decreciente de dicha relación y que el homicidio relacionado con atraco es la modalidad que más se ve afectada por dicha variable. Los resultados alcanzados permiten simular escenarios de intervención que optimicen la presencia de la fuerza pública, asumiendo mínimos costos.

Suggested Citation

  • Néstor Garza P. & Leonardo Nieto A. & Mábel Gutiérrez, 2009. "El homicido en Barranquilla: Una lectura espacial," Revista de Economía del Caribe 7117, Universidad del Norte.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000382:007117
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    File URL: http://rcientificas.uninorte.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/viewFile/613/326
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Álvaro José Moreno García, 2005. "Impacto De Transmilenio En El Crimen De La Avenida Caracas Y Sus Vecindades," Documentos CEDE 2809, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    2. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juanita Aldana-Domínguez & Carlos Montes & José A. González, 2018. "Understanding the Past to Envision a Sustainable Future: A Social–Ecological History of the Barranquilla Metropolitan Area (Colombia)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Nestor Garza & César Hernández Moreno, 2020. "El problema del análisis clúster en presencia de outliers: El caso de Ciénaga - Magdalena - Colombia," Documentos Departamento de Economía 18079, Universidad del Norte.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Violence; spatial analysis; Barranquilla.Violencia; análisis espacial; Barranquilla.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H40 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - General
    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General

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