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Un Modelo de Alerta Temprana para el Sistema Financiero Colombiano

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  • José Eduardo Gómez González

    ()

  • Inés Paola Orozco

    ()

Abstract

En este trabajo se presenta un modelo estadístico de alerta temprana, que utiliza modelos de duración para evaluar el estado corriente y pronosticar el estado futuro de la salud financiera de los bancos en Colombia. En el artículo se discuten las ventajas que tiene utilizar modelos de duración como modelos estadísticos de alerta temprana frente a los más comúnmente utilizados modelos de respuesta binaria. Se argumenta que el modelo aquí presentado, que estudia la probabilidad de deterioro de los créditos a partir la salud financiera de las contrapartes de los bancos, puede ser un buen complemento a un modelo de alerta temprana que estudie directamente la probabilidad de quiebra de las entidades financieras. La capacidad de pronóstico dentro de muestra del modelo es buena, y podría pensarse que la capacidad de pronóstico fuera de muestra también es buena, ya que la muestra de créditos comerciales utilizada en las estimaciones es bastante representativa.

Suggested Citation

  • José Eduardo Gómez González & Inés Paola Orozco, 2009. "Un Modelo de Alerta Temprana para el Sistema Financiero Colombiano," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005544, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:005544
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modelos estadísticos de alerta temprana; modelos de duración; intensidades de transición.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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