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Deuda Pública y Economía Política en Colombia

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  • Sergio Clavijo

Abstract

Este documento presenta simulaciones presupuestales para visualizar la posible trayectoria de la relación Deuda Pública/PIB de Colombia durante el horizonte 2019-2024. De allí sale claro que el principal esfuerzo para estabilizarla debe provenir de mayor tributación, como mínimo, elevándola del 14% al 16% del PIB durante 2022-2024. Consideramos tres escenarios: Caso A (continuar con el gasto social requerido por la pandemia, bordeando +2% del PIB, pero sin reforma tributaria que los sostenga); Caso B (recortar ese gasto social, dada la ausencia de mayores recursos tributarios); y Caso C (mantener ese gasto social, pero apoyados en un mayor recaudo tributario y en privatizaciones de empresas Estatales). Aun bajo el caso B de recorte de gasto, Colombia tendría dificultades para contener la deuda pública consolidada por debajo del 73% hacia el 2024 respecto del 64% al cierre del 2020. Bajo el escenario A de solo mayor gasto, la deuda escalaría al 75% del PIB en 2024 y bajo el C de gasto apoyado en tributación se contendría en 73% del PIB, logrando dar senales positivas de estabilidad social y mayor crecimiento al impulsarse la inversión. La coyuntura 2022-2024 luce adecuada para modificar una regla fiscal que: i) nunca cumplió el pronóstico de descenso inmediato, ni de tendencia; ii) sufrió alteraciones drásticas en sus brechas (precio-petróleo y PIB) y uso recurrente de cláusulas de “escape”; y iv) careció de anclajes vía balance primario. También analizamos temas anti-evasión tributaria y, finalmente, discutimos la “economía política” de las reformas estructurales (tributaria, laboral y pensional) que deberá abordar el próximo gobierno para lograr mejores equilibrios fiscales-sociales.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Clavijo, 2022. "Deuda Pública y Economía Política en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 20026, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:020026
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    File URL: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstream/handle/1992/55921/dcede2022-04.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Impuestos; Bienes Públicos; Deuda Pública; Latino América;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H44 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Goods: Mixed Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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