IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/020026.html

Deuda Pública y Economía Política en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Sergio Clavijo

Abstract

Este documento presenta simulaciones presupuestales para visualizar la posible trayectoria de la relación Deuda Pública/PIB de Colombia durante el horizonte 2019-2024. De allí sale claro que el principal esfuerzo para estabilizarla debe provenir de mayor tributación, como mínimo, elevándola del 14% al 16% del PIB durante 2022-2024. Consideramos tres escenarios: Caso A (continuar con el gasto social requerido por la pandemia, bordeando +2% del PIB, pero sin reforma tributaria que los sostenga); Caso B (recortar ese gasto social, dada la ausencia de mayores recursos tributarios); y Caso C (mantener ese gasto social, pero apoyados en un mayor recaudo tributario y en privatizaciones de empresas Estatales). Aun bajo el caso B de recorte de gasto, Colombia tendría dificultades para contener la deuda pública consolidada por debajo del 73% hacia el 2024 respecto del 64% al cierre del 2020. Bajo el escenario A de solo mayor gasto, la deuda escalaría al 75% del PIB en 2024 y bajo el C de gasto apoyado en tributación se contendría en 73% del PIB, logrando dar senales positivas de estabilidad social y mayor crecimiento al impulsarse la inversión. La coyuntura 2022-2024 luce adecuada para modificar una regla fiscal que: i) nunca cumplió el pronóstico de descenso inmediato, ni de tendencia; ii) sufrió alteraciones drásticas en sus brechas (precio-petróleo y PIB) y uso recurrente de cláusulas de “escape”; y iv) careció de anclajes vía balance primario. También analizamos temas anti-evasión tributaria y, finalmente, discutimos la “economía política” de las reformas estructurales (tributaria, laboral y pensional) que deberá abordar el próximo gobierno para lograr mejores equilibrios fiscales-sociales.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Clavijo, 2022. "Deuda P√∫blica y Econom√≠a Pol√≠tica en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 20026, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:020026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstream/handle/1992/55921/dcede2022-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Kenneth S. Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose, 2022. "The Aftermath of Debt Surges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 637-663, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shimizu, Chihiro & Imai, Satoshi & Diewert, Erwin, 2016. "Alternative Approaches to Housing Services and Japanese CPI: -Bias from Nominal Rigidity of Rents-," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 35, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Samir Jahjah & Bin Wei & Vivian Zhanwei Yue, 2013. "Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1275-1300, October.
    3. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael, 2015. "Sovereign credit ratings in the European Union: A model-based fiscal analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 220-247.
    4. Thanh C. Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political environment and financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 417-438, January.
    5. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor, 2021. "Does the composition of government spending matter for government bond spreads?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 409-420.
    6. Crowe, Christopher & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Rabanal, Pau, 2013. "How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 300-319.
    7. Victor A. Beker, 2016. "The European Debt Crisis," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Modern Financial Crises, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 135-160, Springer.
    8. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Estimating the shape of economic crises under heterogeneity," Kiel Working Papers 1520, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Samrat Roy & Chanchal Chatterjee, 2013. "Dynamics of Trade Potentials in ‘Emerging Asia’ in the Post Financial Crisis Era," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 14(4), pages 639-650, December.
    10. Breckenfelder, Johannes, 2018. "How is a firm’s credit risk affected by sovereign risk?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 53.
    11. Cao, Dan & Evans, Martin & Lua, Wenlan, 2020. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics Beyond Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 99054, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Mar 2020.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 319-350, May.
    13. Ons Jedidi & Jean Sébastien Pentecote, 2015. "Robust Signals for Banking Crises," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1617-1629.
    14. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2014. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 819-866, April.
    15. Sebastian Watzka & Friedrich Thießen, 2011. "Lässt sich das erneute Abgleiten in eine Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise abwenden?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(21), pages 03-10, November.
    16. Felipe Saffie & Liliana Varela & Kei-Mu Yi, 2020. "The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 27371, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2012. "The Consequences of Banking Crises for Public Debt," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 289-307, December.
    18. Gerard Caprio, Jr. Williams College, 2009. "Financial Regulation in a Changing World: Lessons from the Recent Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp308, IIIS.
    19. Ravi Balakrishnan & Stephan Danninger & Selim Elekdag & Irina Tytell, 2011. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 40-68, May.
    20. Johannes F. Wieland & Mu‐Jeung Yang, 2020. "Financial Dampening," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 79-113, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H44 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Goods: Mixed Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000089:020026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Universidad De Los Andes-Cede (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceandco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.