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Principal Components and the Long Run

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  • Xiaohong Chen
  • Lars Peter Hansen
  • Jos´e A. Scheinkman

Abstract

We investigate a method for extracting nonlinear principal components. These principal components maximize variation subject to smoothness and orthogonality constraints; but we allow for a general class of constraints and densities, including densities without compact support and even densities with algebraic tails. We provide primitive sufficient conditions for the existence of these principal components. We also characterize the limiting behavior of the associated eigenvalues, the objects used to quantify the incremental importance of the principal components. By exploiting the theory of continuous-time, reversible Markov processes, we give a different interpretation of the principal components and the smoothness constraints. When the diffusion matrix is used to enforce smoothness, the principal components maximize long-run variation relative to the overall variation subject to orthogonality constraints. Moreover, the principal components behave as scalar autoregressions with heteroskedastic innovations. Finally, we explore implications for a more general class of stationary, multivariate diffusion processes.
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Suggested Citation

  • Xiaohong Chen & Lars Peter Hansen & Jos´e A. Scheinkman, 2005. "Principal Components and the Long Run," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000997, UCLA Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cla:levrem:122247000000000997
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    File URL: http://www.princeton.edu/~joses/wp/Principal_comp.pdf
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    1. Darolles, Serge & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Gourieroux, Christian, 2004. "Kernel-based nonlinear canonical analysis and time reversibility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 323-353, April.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Alexandre Scheinkman, Jose & Touzi, Nizar, 1998. "Spectral methods for identifying scalar diffusions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 1-32, June.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1995. "Back to the Future: Generating Moment Implications for Continuous-Time Markov Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 767-804, July.
    4. Serge Darolles & Jean-Pierre Florens & Christian Gourieroux, 2004. "Kernel-based nonlinear canonical analysis and time reversibility," Post-Print halshs-00678062, HAL.
    5. Meddahi, N., 2001. "An Eigenfunction Approach for Volatility Modeling," Cahiers de recherche 2001-29, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    6. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Nour Meddahi, 2004. "Analytical Evaluation Of Volatility Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1079-1110, November.
    7. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Renault, Eric & Touzi, Nizar, 1998. "Testing For Embeddability By Stationary Reversible Continuous-Time Markov Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(6), pages 744-769, December.
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