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Bootstrapping pre-averaged realized volatility under market microstructure noise

Author

Listed:
  • Ulrich Hounyo
  • Silvia Gonçalves
  • Nour Meddahi

Abstract

The main contribution of this paper is to propose a bootstrap method for inference on integrated volatility based on the pre-averaging approach, where the pre-averaging is done over all possible overlapping blocks of consecutive observations. The overlapping nature of the pre-averaged returns implies that the leading martingale part in the pre-averaged returns are kn-dependent with kn growing slowly with the sample size n. This motivates the application of a blockwise bootstrap method. We show that the \blocks of blocks" bootstrap method is not valid when volatility is time-varying. The failure of the blocks of blocks bootstrap is due to the heterogeneity of the squared pre-averaged returns when volatility is stochastic. To preserve both the dependence and the heterogeneity of squared pre-averaged returns, we propose a novel procedure that combines the wild bootstrap with the blocks of blocks bootstrap. We provide a proof of the first order asymptotic validity of this method for percentile and percentile-t intervals. Our Monte Carlo simulations show that the wild blocks of blocks bootstrap improves the finite sample properties of the existing first order asymptotic theory. We use empirical work to illustrate its use in practice.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Hounyo & Silvia Gonçalves & Nour Meddahi, 2016. "Bootstrapping pre-averaged realized volatility under market microstructure noise," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-25, CIRANO.
  • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2016s-25
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    File URL: https://cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2016s-25.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Iliyan Georgiev, 2020. "Inference Under Random Limit Bootstrap Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2547-2574, November.
    2. Hounyo, Ulrich, 2017. "Bootstrapping integrated covariance matrix estimators in noisy jump–diffusion models with non-synchronous trading," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 130-152.
    3. Ulrich Hounyo & Bezirgen Veliyev, 2016. "Validity of Edgeworth expansions for realized volatility estimators," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 19(1), pages 1-32, February.
    4. Kim Christensen & Ulrich Hounyo & Mark Podolskij, 2017. "Is the diurnal pattern sufficient to explain the intraday variation in volatility? A nonparametric assessment," CREATES Research Papers 2017-30, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Dovonon, Prosper & Taamouti, Abderrahim & Williams, Julian, 2022. "Testing the eigenvalue structure of spot and integrated covariance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 229(2), pages 363-395.
    6. Hounyo, Ulrich & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2017. "A local stable bootstrap for power variations of pure-jump semimartingales and activity index estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 10-28.
    7. Hounyo, Ulrich & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Estimating the variance of a combined forecast: Bootstrap-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 445-468.
    8. Camponovo, Lorenzo & Matsushita, Yukitoshi & Otsu, Taisuke, 2019. "Empirical likelihood for high frequency data," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100320, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Zongwu Cai & Chaoqun Ma & Xianhua Mi, 2020. "Realized Volatility Forecasting Based on Dynamic Quantile Model Averaging," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202016, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2020.
    10. Hwang, Eunju & Shin, Dong Wan, 2018. "Two-stage stationary bootstrapping for bivariate average realized volatility matrix under market microstructure noise and asynchronicity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(2), pages 178-195.
    11. Ulrich Hounyo, 2014. "The wild tapered block bootstrap," CREATES Research Papers 2014-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Block bootstrap; high frequency data; market microstructure noise; preaveraging; realized volatility; wild bootstrap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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