R&D and Patents: Which Way Does the Causality Run?
From cross-sectional data of 460 firms that responded to both the 1988 and the 1992 Dutch innovation surveys we have reexamined the causality direction between R&D and patents, using data on contemporaneous and four-year lagged patent applications and R&D expenditures. The two equations have been estimated jointly assuming a bivariate conditional distribution between the two variables, one being discrete and the other one continuous. We have experimented with different specifications of the count data for patent applications. We find that patents Granger-cause R&D in all specifications. One additional patent increases R&D four years later by 7.5%. The reverse causality from R&D to patents vanishes as soon as we depart in one way or another from the simple Poisson specification of patent counts. À partir de données transversales de 460 entreprises néerlandaises ayant répondu aux enquêtes innovation de 1988 et 1992, nous réexaminons le sens de la causalité entre la R-D et les brevets. Les deux équations de comportement ont été estimées simultanément en supposant une distribution bivariée conditionnelle entre ces deux variables, dont l'une est discrète et l'autre continue. Nous avons essayé différentes spécifications pour les données de comptage sur les brevets. Nous trouvons que la causalité à la Granger va des brevets à la R-D dans toutes les spécifications. Un brevet en plus augmente la R-D quatre ans plus tard de 7,5 %. La causalité dans l'autre sens disparaît dès que l'on s'écarte le moindrement d'une distribution Poisson des données de brevets.
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