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Welfare Implications of a Second Lender in the International Markets

The role of an extra lender in the international markets – such the IMF or another similar institution - has been widely covered in academic discussions and among policy makers. However, there is neither a clear answer nor a consensus about its welfare consequences. On the one hand, it is argued that the moral hazard consequences of an extra lender could be strong enough to offset any positive effect of an additional source of funding. On the other hand, it is argued that moral hazard consequences could be negligible and, therefore, the second lender’s presence could be welfare improving. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it provides a numerical perspective about the welfare effect of an active second lender. Second, it sheds light on the debt dynamics in the two-lender case. The main result is that the second lender is not beneficial from a welfare standpoint for a wide range of parameters. Without coordination, the estimates imply welfare losses that range from 1.5% to 6% of GDP, depending on the severity of the second lender’s penalties. On the other hand, if a coordination mechanism is imposed, such as the second lender acting as a lender of last resort, then the model will mimic a one-lender model where the first lender is crowded out from the market. l II) could be helpful on this task.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 422.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:422
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  1. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and international trade," Staff Reports 142, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  3. Zame, William R, 1993. "Efficiency and the Role of Default When Security Markets Are Incomplete," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1142-64, December.
  4. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Catalytic Finance: When Does It Work?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm339, Yale School of Management.
  5. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1998. "Self-fulfilling debt crises," Staff Report 211, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Scholarly Articles 12491028, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Krueger, Dirk & Uhlig, Harald, 2004. "Competitive Risk Sharing Contracts with One-Sided Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March.
  9. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
  10. Brian D. Wright & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 2000. "Sovereign Debt as Intertemporal Barter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 621-639, June.
  11. Phelan Christopher, 1995. "Repeated Moral Hazard and One-Sided Commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 488-506, August.
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