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The Effect of Social Distancing on the Reach of an Epidemic in Social Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory Gutin

    (Royal Holloway, University of London)

  • Tomohiro Hirano

    (Royal Holloway, University of London)

  • Sung-Ha Hwang

    (College of Business, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST))

  • Philip R. Neary

    (Royal Holloway,University of London)

  • Alexis Akira Toda

    (University of California San Diego)

Abstract

How does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic in social networks? We extend the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) epidemic model to social networks in which individuals are limited in the number of other people they can interact with. While increased social distancing always reduces the spread of an infectious disease, the magnitude varies greatly depending on the topology of the social network. Our results also reveal the importance of coordination at the ‘global’ level. In particular, the public health benefits from social distancing to a group (e.g., a country) may be completely undone if that group maintains connections with outside groups that are not social distancing.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Gutin & Tomohiro Hirano & Sung-Ha Hwang & Philip R. Neary & Alexis Akira Toda, 2020. "The Effect of Social Distancing on the Reach of an Epidemic in Social Networks," Discussion Papers 2013, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2013
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy C Reluga, 2010. "Game Theory of Social Distancing in Response to an Epidemic," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(5), pages 1-9, May.
    2. Duncan J. Watts & Steven H. Strogatz, 1998. "Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 393(6684), pages 440-442, June.
    3. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Lančić, Alen & Antulov-Fantulin, Nino & Šikić, Mile & Štefančić, Hrvoje, 2011. "Phase diagram of epidemic spreading — unimodal vs. bimodal probability distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(1), pages 65-76.
    5. Stefanie Gerke & Gregory Gutin & Sung-Ha Hwang & Philip Neary, 2019. "Public goods in networks with constraints on sharing," Papers 1905.01693, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    6. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2004. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-13, January.
    7. Alessio Muscillo & Paolo Pin & Tiziano Razzolini, 2020. "Covid19: Unless one gets everyone to act, policies may be ineffective or even backfire," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-6, September.
    8. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost & Marco C. Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin, 2020. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 26945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerke, Stefanie & Gutin, Gregory & Hwang, Sung-Ha & Neary, Philip R., 2024. "Public goods in networks with constraints on sharing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    2. Patrick Mellacher, 2022. "Endogenous viral mutations, evolutionary selection, and containment policy design," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 801-825, July.

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