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Bank’s regulation, asset portfolio choice of banks, and macroeconomic dynamics

  • Kosuke Aoki

    (The University of Tokyo)

  • Nao Sudo

    (Bank of Japan)

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Since the middle of 1990s, the Japanese banks have continuously tilted their asset portfolio towards the government bonds, reducing their lending to …rms. In this paper, we investigate the causes and consequences of such changes in the banks behaviors, by introducing the bank’s asset portfolio decision into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. The banks in our model construct their portfolio under the value at risk constraint, that requires banks repay their debt regardless of the realization of the asset returns. Under the constraint, an increase in down-side risks, tightening of capital requirement rules or deterioration of the banks net worth reduce the banks’ risk taking capacity, and incurs a shrinkage of the bank’s balance sheet and asset rebalancing towards government bond. The changes in banks’ investment decisions dampen output and inflation. Empirical studies suggest that our theoretical predictions are consistent with behavior of the Japanese banks.

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File URL: http://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/pdf/workingpaper/fseries/F323.pdf
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Paper provided by Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo in its series CARF F-Series with number CARF-F-323.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf323
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  1. Thomas J. Sargent & Paolo Surico, 2011. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money: Breakdowns and Revivals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 109-28, February.
  2. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2010. "Do Investment-Specific Technological Changes Matter for Business Fluctuations? Evidence from Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 10-E-4, Bank of Japan.
  3. Takuji Fueki & Ichiro Fukunaga & Hibiki Ichiue & Toyoichiro Shirota, 2010. "Measuring Potential Growth with an Estimated DSGE Model of Japan's Economy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 10-E-13, Bank of Japan.
  4. Alan Sutherland & Michael B. Devereux, 2007. "Country Portfolio Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 07/283, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2006. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," NBER Working Papers 12129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Doi, Takero & Hoshi, Takeo & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2011. "Japanese government debt and sustainability of fiscal policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 414-433.
  7. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2008. "Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models," NBER Working Papers 14372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Nao Sudo, 2011. "Accounting for the Decline in the Velocity of Money in the Japanese Economy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  9. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  10. Keisuke Otsu, 2011. "Accounting for Japanese Business Cycles: A Quest for Labor Wedges," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 143-170, November.
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