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The Effect of Real Estate Purchase Subsidies on Property Prices

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  • Carla Krolage

Abstract

This paper assesses to which degree housing purchase subsidies are capitalized into property prices. Using a large-scale micro data set on German house prices, I exploit the introduction of a new subsidy scheme in the state of Bavaria. My difference-in difference estimations at the Bavarian interstate border indicate that the prices of single-family homes increased by approximately 10,000 euros more in Bavarian border regions. This is consistent with a full capitalization of the subsidy. No effect is found for apartments, whose purchasers seldom qualify for the subsidy. A heterogeneity analysis confirms that the price effect is larger in segments of the real estate market with a higher exposure to the subsidy scheme. I also provide suggestive evidence that the subsidy scheme slightly stimulated construction activity. Overall, my results indicate that instead of making house purchases more affordable for families, the subsidy scheme led to a rise in house prices and mainly benefited sellers of properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Carla Krolage, 2020. "The Effect of Real Estate Purchase Subsidies on Property Prices," ifo Working Paper Series 333, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_333
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Krolage, Carla & Neumeier, Florian, 2025. "Who bears the burden of real estate transfer taxes? Evidence from the German housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Kamila Sommer & Paul Sullivan, 2018. "Implications of US Tax Policy for House Prices, Rents, and Homeownership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 241-274, February.
    3. Christian A. L. Hilber & Tracy M. Turner, 2014. "The Mortgage Interest Deduction and its Impact on Homeownership Decisions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 618-637, October.
    4. Martin Gornig & Claus Michelsen & Martin Bruns, 2019. "Construction Industry Momentum Continues – State Stimulus Impacts Prices," DIW Weekly Report, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 9(1/2), pages 3-14.
    5. Andreas Mense & Claus Michelsen & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2019. "The Effects of Second-Generation Rent Control on Land Values," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 385-388, May.
    6. Berger, Tommy, et al, 2000. "The Capitalization of Interest Subsidies: Evidence from Sweden," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 199-217, May.
    7. Petkova, Kunka & Weichenrieder, Alfons, 2017. "Price and Quantity Effects of the German Real Estate Transfer Tax," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168305, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Floetotto, Max & Kirker, Michael & Stroebel, Johannes, 2016. "Government intervention in the housing market: Who wins, who loses?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 106-123.
    9. Till Baldenius & Sebastian Kohl & Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Die neue Wohnungsfrage: Gewinner und Verlierer des deutschen Immobilienbooms," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 019, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Daminger, 2023. "Homeowner Subsidies and Suburban Living: Empirical Evidence from a Subsidy Repeal," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 79(2), pages 111-145.
    2. Alexander Daminger, 2021. "Subsidies to Homeownership and Central City Rent," Working Papers 210, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real estate market; housing subsidies; property prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

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