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Cyclical Earnings, Career and Employment Transitions

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Listed:
  • Carlos Carrillo-Tudela
  • Ludo Visschers
  • David Wiczer

Abstract

This paper studies the cyclical behaviour of earnings risk and career changes. We document that the procyclical skewness of the earnings growth distribution arises mostly from the earnings changes of employer and occupation switchers. To uncover their relative importance in driving cyclical earnings changes and whether this arises from changes in the returns to mobility or mobility shocks, we propose a multi-sector business cycle model with on-the-job search and endogenous occupational mobility. Idiosyncratic occupational mobility is the main driver of cyclical earnings risk, mainly due to cyclical shifts in the returns to this mobility. This is the main reason why the sullying effects of recessions are long-lasting. These effects manifest themselves through a collapse of the job ladder and forgone lifetime earnings gains, especially for low-paid workers, and through large lifetime earnings losses among high-paid workers who experience forced occupational mobility and poor re-employment outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Carrillo-Tudela & Ludo Visschers & David Wiczer, 2022. "Cyclical Earnings, Career and Employment Transitions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9990, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9990
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gueorgui Kambourov & Iourii Manovskii, 2009. "Occupational Specificity Of Human Capital," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(1), pages 63-115, February.
    2. Giuseppe Moscarini & Kaj Thomsson, 2007. "Occupational and Job Mobility in the US," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(4), pages 807-836, December.
    3. Joachim Hubmer, 2018. "The Job Ladder and its Implications for Earnings Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 172-194, July.
    4. Shigeru Fujita & Giuseppe Moscarini, 2017. "Recall and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(12), pages 3875-3916, December.
    5. Peter Gottschalk, 2005. "Downward Nominal-Wage Flexibility: Real or Measurement Error?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 556-568, August.
    6. Gueorgui Kambourov & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "Rising Occupational And Industry Mobility In The United States: 1968-97," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(1), pages 41-79, February.
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    8. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    earnings; unemployment; business cycle; search; occupational mobility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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