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Estimating Border Effects: The Impact of Spatial Aggregation

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  • Cletus C. Coughlin
  • Dennis Novy

Abstract

Trade data are typically reported at the level of regions or countries and are therefore aggregates across space. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of standard gravity estimation to spatial aggregation. We build a model in which initially symmetric micro regions are combined to form aggregated macro regions. We then apply the model to the large literature on border effects in domestic and international trade. Our theory shows that larger countries are systematically associated with smaller border effects. The reason is that due to spatial frictions, aggregation across space increases the relative cost of trading within borders. The cost of trading across borders therefore appears relatively smaller. This mechanism leads to border effect heterogeneity and is independent of multilateral resistance effects in general equilibrium. Even if no border frictions exist at the micro level, gravity estimation on aggregate data can still produce large border effects. We test our theory on domestic and international trade flows at the level of U.S. states. Our results confirm the model’s predictions, with quantitatively large effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Cletus C. Coughlin & Dennis Novy, 2016. "Estimating Border Effects: The Impact of Spatial Aggregation," CESifo Working Paper Series 5879, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5879
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    4. Santamaria, Marta & Ventura, Jaume & Yesilbayraktar, Ugur, 2021. "Borders within Europe," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 560, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    5. Chilosi, David & Nikolic, Stefan, 2021. "Vanishing borders: ethnicity and trade costs at the origin of the Yugoslav market," SocArXiv fsmch, Center for Open Science.
    6. Hinz, Julian, 2017. "The view from space: Theory-based time-varying distances in the gravity model," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168270, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Jerónimo Carballo & Alejandro G. Graziano & Georg Schaur & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2024. "The Effects of Transit Systems on International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1083-1098, July.
    8. Egger, Peter H. & Li, Jie & Wu, Han, 2024. "Decomposing China’s bilateral export growth: A firm-regional-transactions structural gravity approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    9. Anderson, James E. & Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya & Yotov, Yoto V., 2018. "Dark costs, missing data: Shedding some light on services trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 193-214.
    10. Han, Zheng & Li, Hongtao, 2022. "Transportation infrastructure and trade," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Saileshsingh Gunessee & Cheng Zhang, 2022. "The economics of domestic market integration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1069-1095, September.
    12. Benedikt Herz & Xosé-Luís Varela-Irimia, 2020. "Border effects in European public procurement [Information costs and home bias: an analysis of US holdings of foreign equities]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1359-1405.
    13. Hanna Adam & Mario Larch & Jordi Paniagua, 2023. "Spain, Split and Talk: Quantifying Regional Independence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10742, CESifo.
    14. Cosar,Ahmet Kerem, 2022. "Overland Transport Costs : A Review," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10156, The World Bank.
    15. Eugenia Go, 2022. "Overland and Oversea: Domestic Trade Frictions in the Philippines," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 39(02), pages 75-118, September.
    16. Hicham Ganga & Javier Alonso & Vincenzo Spiezia & Jan Tscheke, 2018. "Patterns of domestic and cross-border e-commerce in Spain: A gravitational model approach," Working Papers 18/18, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    17. Zheng, Han, 2022. "Heterogeneous Internal Trade Cost and Its Implications in Trade," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-117, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    18. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2017. "Domestic and international border effects: The cases of China and Japan," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 118-126.
    19. Marta Santamaría & Jaume Ventura & Ugur Yesilbayraktar, 2020. "Borders within Europe," Working Papers 1229, Barcelona School of Economics.
    20. Török, Ádám & Konka, Boglárka, 2019. "Eukleidész és a magyar regionális fejlődés. Válaszcikk Lengyel Imre-Varga Attila tanulmányára és kutatási javaslatok [Euclid and Hungarian regional development. A response to the study of Imre Leng," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 713-722.
    21. Robby K. Bemrose & W. Mark Brown & Jesse Tweedle, 2020. "Going the distance: Estimating the effect of provincial borders on trade when geography (and everything else) matters," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 1098-1131, August.
    22. Santamaría, Marta & Ventura, Jaume & Yesilbayraktar, Ugur, 2021. "Borders within Europe," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1355, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    23. Eugenia Go, 2020. "Trade implications of transport cost in the Philippines," Economics PhD Theses 0320, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    24. Sigbjørn Sødal, 2017. "A Gravity Approach to Constructing Regional Structures from Interregional Flow Data," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 23(4), pages 361-377, November.
    25. Ventura, Jaume & Santamaria, Marta & YeÅŸilbayraktar, UÄŸur, 2021. "Borders within Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 15633, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gravity; geography; borders; trade costs; heterogeneity; home bias; spatial attenuation; Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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