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Will AI Help or Hurt Work and the Economy? What People Around the World Expect

Author

Listed:
  • Claudia Bruschi
  • Francesco D'Acunto
  • Fiorella De Fiore
  • Damiano Sandri
  • Michael Weber

Abstract

Artificial intelligence may augment workers, displace labor, or do both. We elicit beliefs from more than 64,000 adults across 32 countries, covering 65% of the world's population and 85% of global output. Workers are substantially more likely to expect artificial intelligence to facilitate than threaten their jobs. Facilitation is more prevalent in lower-productivity countries, whereas threat is unrelated to productivity. Facilitation and threat often coexist within individuals, indicating that perceived benefits and risks are distinct rather than opposite dimensions. They are also associated with different macroeconomic expectations: facilitation with stronger expected growth and employment, and threat with weaker employment and higher inflation. These heterogeneous beliefs may shape the diffusion and acceptance of artificial intelligence across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Bruschi & Francesco D'Acunto & Fiorella De Fiore & Damiano Sandri & Michael Weber, 2026. "Will AI Help or Hurt Work and the Economy? What People Around the World Expect," CESifo Working Paper Series 13006, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13006
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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