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MICHELE: The Computation of Healthy Life Expectancy from Mortality Schedules

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  • Astrid Krenz
  • Holger Strulik

Abstract

Healthy life expectancy is conventionally computed by combining life-table mortality with independently observed health information. This paper proposes an alternative approach that computes healthy life expectancy from mortality schedules alone. Building on the empirical regularities that adult mortality follows Gompertz's law and that mortality is related to the frailty index by a power law, we introduce Mortality-Implied Continuous Health-Equivalent Life Expectancy (MICHELE). The framework is validated using the Health and Retirement Study, where MICHELE closely reproduces directly observed Continuous Health-Equivalent Life Expectancy, and using Healthy Life Expectancy from the Global Burden of Disease Study, where mortality-implied health weights explain almost all age-related variation in disability-based health weights. The results suggest that mortality schedules contain substantially more information about the biological aging process underlying healthy longevity than has generally been recognized and provide a simple approach for estimating healthy life expectancy when comparable health data are unavailable.

Suggested Citation

  • Astrid Krenz & Holger Strulik, 2026. "MICHELE: The Computation of Healthy Life Expectancy from Mortality Schedules," CESifo Working Paper Series 12868, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12868
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Astrid Krenz & Holger Strulik, 2025. "Male excess mortality during the epidemiological transition: theory and evidence from India," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-26, December.
    2. Rainer Kotschy & David E. Bloom & Andrew J. Scott, 2025. "On the Limits of Chronological Age," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 17(1), pages 151-173, August.
    3. Ana Lucia Abeliansky & Holger Strulik, 2018. "How We Fall Apart: Similarities of Human Aging in 10 European Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(1), pages 341-359, February.
    4. Roozbei Hosseini & Karen Kopecky & Kai Zhao, 2022. "The Evolution of Health over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 237-263, July.
    5. Anders Ledberg, 2020. "Exponential increase in mortality with age is a generic property of a simple model system of damage accumulation and death," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-17, June.
    6. Hansen, Casper Worm & Strulik, Holger, 2025. "How do we age? A decomposition of Gompertz law," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Casper Worm Hansen & Holger Strulik, 2022. "Physiological aging around the World," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(6), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Holger Strulik, 2014. "Optimal Aging And Death: Understanding The Preston Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 672-701, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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