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Better stealing than dealing: how do felony theft thresholds impact crime?

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Listed:
  • Stephen B. Billings
  • Michael D. Makowsky
  • Kevin Schnepel
  • Adam Soliman

Abstract

From 2005 to 2019, forty US states raised the dollar value threshold delineating misdemeanor and felony theft, reducing the expected punishment for a subset of property crimes. Using an event study framework, we observe significant and growing increases in theft after a state reform is passed. We then show that reduced sanctions for theft have broader effects in the market for illegal activity. Consistent with a mechanism of substitution across income-generating crimes, we find decreases in both drug distribution crimes and the probability that a released offender previously convicted of drug distribution is reincarcerated for a new drug conviction.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen B. Billings & Michael D. Makowsky & Kevin Schnepel & Adam Soliman, 2025. "Better stealing than dealing: how do felony theft thresholds impact crime?," CEP Discussion Papers dp2130, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2130
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