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Do greater sanctions deter youth crime? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design

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  • Lovett, Nicholas
  • Xue, Yuhan

Abstract

We exploit the discontinuous jump in criminal sanctions at the age of majority in conjunction with administrative data from California to generate regression discontinuity estimates of the deterrent effect. Estimates show that the greater severity imposed upon adolescents at age 18 deters violent crime by 10%–12%. Results are robust to multiple techniques and specifications. Using these results, we estimate an elasticity of crime with respect to sanction intensity that ranges from -0.145 to -0.174. We extend our results to demographic sub-populations and find female offenders, as well as white and Asian offenders, are relatively more responsive to sanctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lovett, Nicholas & Xue, Yuhan, 2025. "Do greater sanctions deter youth crime? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:236:y:2025:i:c:s0167268125002021
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107083
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    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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