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The Deterrence Effect of Prison: Dynamic Theory and Evidence

In: Regression Discontinuity Designs

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  • David S. Lee
  • Justin McCrary

Abstract

Using administrative, longitudinal data on felony arrests in Florida, we exploit the discontinuous increase in the punitiveness of criminal sanctions at 18 to estimate the deterrence effect of incarceration. Our analysis suggests a 2% decline in the log-odds of offending at 18, with standard errors ruling out declines of 11% or more. We interpret these magnitudes using a stochastic dynamic extension ofBecker’s (1968)model of criminal behavior. Calibrating the model to match key empirical moments, we conclude that deterrence elasticities with respect to sentence lengths are no more negative than−0.13for young offenders.

Suggested Citation

  • David S. Lee & Justin McCrary, 2017. "The Deterrence Effect of Prison: Dynamic Theory and Evidence," Advances in Econometrics, in: Regression Discontinuity Designs, volume 38, pages 73-146, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-905320170000038005
    DOI: 10.1108/S0731-905320170000038005
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    Cited by:

    1. Vollaard, Ben, 2017. "Temporal displacement of environmental crime: Evidence from marine oil pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 168-180.
    2. Anna Bindler & Randi Hjalmarsson & Nadine Ketel & Andreea Mitrut, 2023. "Discontinuities in the Age-Victimisation Profile and the Determinants of Victimisation," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 95-134.
    3. Justin E. Holz & John A. List & Alejandro Zentner & Marvin Cardoza & Joaquin Zentner, 2020. "The $100 Million Nudge: Increasing Tax Compliance of Businesses and the Self-Employed using a Natural Field Experiment," NBER Working Papers 27666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Manasi Deshpande & Michael G. Mueller-Smith, 2022. "Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed From SSI," NBER Working Papers 29800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Aaron Chalfin & Benjamin Hansen & Jason Lerner & Lucie Parker, 2019. "Reducing Crime Through Environmental Design: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Street Lighting in New York City," NBER Working Papers 25798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Chalfin, Aaron & Danagoulian, Shooshan & Deza, Monica, 2019. "More sneezing, less crime? Health shocks and the market for offenses," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Dur, Robert & Vollaard, Ben, 2019. "Salience of law enforcement: A field experiment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 208-220.
    8. Ouss, Aurélie, 2020. "Misaligned incentives and the scale of incarceration in the United States," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Lepage, Louis-Pierre, 2020. "Are criminals strategic? Offender responses to drug sentencing cutoffs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    10. Lundberg, Alexander & Mungan, Murat, 2022. "The effect of evidentiary rules on conviction rates," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 563-576.
    11. Benjamin Monnery & Saïd Souam & Anna Montagutelli, 2021. "Economie du travail en prison : enjeux, résultats et recommandations," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Richard Dorsett, 2021. "A Bayesian structural time series analysis of the effect of basic income on crime: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(1), pages 179-200, January.
    13. Cepeda-Francese, Camilo A. & Ramírez-Álvarez, Aurora A., 2023. "Reforming justice under a security crisis: The case of the criminal justice reform in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    14. Zanella, Giulio, 2020. "Prison Work and Convict Rehabilitation," IZA Discussion Papers 13446, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Lia Q. Flores & Julian Jamison, 2023. "Predicting life outcomes with automatic thinking measures in a marginalized population," Economics Series Working Papers 1005, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Holz, Justin E. & List, John A. & Zentner, Alejandro & Cardoza, Marvin & Zentner, Joaquin E., 2023. "The $100 million nudge: Increasing tax compliance of firms using a natural field experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    17. Raphael Douglas de Freitas Lucena & Rodolfo Ferreira Ribeiro Costa & Ivan Castelar & Francisco Soares de Lima, 2021. "Dynamic Analysis of Criminal Behavior: An Application of Empirical Mode Decomposition," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(4), pages 1-47, April.
    18. Estelle, Sarah M. & Phillips, David C., 2018. "Smart sentencing guidelines: The effect of marginal policy changes on recidivism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 270-293.
    19. Lovett, Nicholas & Xue, Yuhan, 2022. "Rare homicides, criminal behavior, and the returns to police labor," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 172-195.
    20. A. Mitchell Polinsky & Paul N. Riskind, 2017. "Deterrence and the Optimal Use of Prison, Parole, and Probation," NBER Working Papers 23436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Barati, Mehdi & Adams, Scott, 2019. "Enhanced penalties for carrying firearms illegally and their effects on crime," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 207-219.
    22. Monica Deza & Thanh Lu & Johanna Catherine Maclean, 2022. "Office‐based mental healthcare and juvenile arrests," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(S2), pages 69-91, October.
    23. Anna Piil Damm & Britt Østergaard Larsen & Helena Skyt Nielsen & Marianne Simonsen, 2017. "Lowering the minimum age of criminal responsibility: Consequences for juvenile crime and education," Economics Working Papers 2017-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    24. Javier D. Donna & José‐Antonio Espín‐Sánchez, 2021. "Water theft as social insurance: south‐eastern Spain, 1851–1948," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(3), pages 721-753, August.
    25. Eberhartinger, Eva & Safaei, Reyhaneh & Sureth, Caren & Wu, Yuchen, 2021. "Are risk-based tax audit stretegies rewarded? An analysis of corporate tax avoidance," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 267, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prison; deterrence; self-control; D9; K4;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior

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