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The Deterrence Effect of Prison: Dynamic Theory and Evidence

In: Regression Discontinuity Designs

Author

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  • David S. Lee
  • Justin McCrary

Abstract

Using administrative, longitudinal data on felony arrests in Florida, we exploit the discontinuous increase in the punitiveness of criminal sanctions at 18 to estimate the deterrence effect of incarceration. Our analysis suggests a 2% decline in the log-odds of offending at 18, with standard errors ruling out declines of 11% or more. We interpret these magnitudes using a stochastic dynamic extension ofBecker’s (1968)model of criminal behavior. Calibrating the model to match key empirical moments, we conclude that deterrence elasticities with respect to sentence lengths are no more negative than−0.13for young offenders.

Suggested Citation

  • David S. Lee & Justin McCrary, 2017. "The Deterrence Effect of Prison: Dynamic Theory and Evidence," Advances in Econometrics, in: Regression Discontinuity Designs, volume 38, pages 73-146, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-905320170000038005
    DOI: 10.1108/S0731-905320170000038005
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prison; deterrence; self-control; D9; K4;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior

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