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When does crime respond to punishment?: Evidence from drug-free school zones

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  • Gonzalez, Robert
  • Jabri, Ranae
  • Komisarow, Sarah

Abstract

Economic theory suggests that crime should respond to punishment severity. However, empirical evidence on this link is ambiguous. We propose one explanation for this discrepancy: Punishments deter crime but only when the probability of detection is moderate. Using increases in punishment severity in drug-free school zones along with changes in the probability of detection resulting from a community crime-monitoring program, we demonstrate that drug-related crime drops in blocks just within the drug-free school zones, where punishments are more severe, but only if the monitoring intensity – and hence the probability of detection – is at intermediate levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzalez, Robert & Jabri, Ranae & Komisarow, Sarah, 2025. "When does crime respond to punishment?: Evidence from drug-free school zones," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:147:y:2025:i:c:s0094119025000282
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103763
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    JEL classification:

    • K40 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - General
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • H40 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - General

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