IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cep/cepdps/dp2125.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Segregation, spillovers and the locus of racial change

Author

Listed:
  • Donald R. Davis
  • Matthew Easton
  • Stephan Thies

Abstract

We use a discrete choice framework to provide the first nesting of Thomas C. Schelling's canonical models of racial segregation amenable to empirical examination. Using U.S. Census data from 1970-2000, we demonstrate a central role for spatial racial spillovers in shaping racial clustering, patterns of racial shares and housing prices at the boundary of racial clusters, and the locus of racial change. Our results on the locus of racial change conflict strongly with prominent prior results on racial tipping. Our theory provides a foundation for spatially stratified regressions. The strongest spatial effects in the prior work are not tipping, but the distinct biased White suburbanization. Tipping effects in urban areas remote from Minority clusters are small or insignificant. In urban areas proximate to Minority clusters they average less than half those reported in prior pooled results. Policies promoting racial integration must thus attend to the heterogeneous fragility of neighborhoods.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald R. Davis & Matthew Easton & Stephan Thies, 2025. "Segregation, spillovers and the locus of racial change," CEP Discussion Papers dp2125, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2125
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp2125.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm, 2024. "Neighborhood Effects: Evidence from Wartime Destruction in London," Working Papers 322, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. Patrick Bayer & Christopher Timmins, 2007. "Estimating Equilibrium Models Of Sorting Across Locations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 353-374, March.
    3. Logan, Trevon D. & Parman, John M., 2017. "The National Rise in Residential Segregation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 127-170, March.
    4. Peter Christensen & Christopher Timmins, 2022. "Sorting or Steering: The Effects of Housing Discrimination on Neighborhood Choice," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(8), pages 2110-2163.
    5. Bayer, Patrick & Fang, Hanming & McMillan, Robert, 2014. "Separate when equal? Racial inequality and residential segregation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 32-48.
    6. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren, 2018. "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility I: Childhood Exposure Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1107-1162.
    7. Peter Christensen & Christopher Timmins, 2023. "The Damages and Distortions from Discrimination in the Rental Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(4), pages 2505-2557.
    8. Eric Chyn & Lawrence F. Katz, 2021. "Neighborhoods Matter: Assessing the Evidence for Place Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 197-222, Fall.
    9. Milena Almagro & Eric Chyn & Bryan Stuart, 2023. "Urban Renewal and Inequality: Evidence from Chicago’s Public Housing Demolitions," Working Papers 23-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    10. David M. Cutler & Edward L. Glaeser & Jacob L. Vigdor, 1999. "The Rise and Decline of the American Ghetto," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 455-506, June.
    11. Farmer, J. Doyne & Axtell, Robert L., 2022. "Agent-Based Modeling in Economics and Finance: Past, Present, and Future," INET Oxford Working Papers 2022-10, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    12. Easterly William, 2009. "Empirics of Strategic Interdependence: The Case of the Racial Tipping Point," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-35, June.
    13. Patrick Bayer & Fernando Ferreira & Robert McMillan, 2007. "A Unified Framework for Measuring Preferences for Schools and Neighborhoods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 588-638, August.
    14. Rajiv Sethi & Rohini Somanathan, 2004. "Inequality and Segregation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1296-1321, December.
    15. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2001. "Discrete Choice with Social Interactions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(2), pages 235-260.
    16. David Card & Alexandre Mas & Jesse Rothstein, 2008. "Are Mixed Neighborhoods Always Unstable?: Two-Sided and One Sided Tipping," Working Papers 1067, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    17. Allison Shertzer & Randall P. Walsh, 2019. "Racial Sorting and the Emergence of Segregation in American Cities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 415-427, July.
    18. David Card & Alexandre Mas & Jesse Rothstein, 2008. "Are Mixed Neighborhoods Always Unstable? Two-Sided and One-Sided Tipping," NBER Working Papers 14470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. David Card & Alexandre Mas & Jesse Rothstein, 2008. "Tipping and the Dynamics of Segregation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 177-218.
    20. Federico Echenique & Roland G. Fryer, 2007. "A Measure of Segregation Based on Social Interactions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 441-485.
    21. Caetano, Gregorio & Maheshri, Vikram, 2017. "School segregation and the identification of tipping behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 115-135.
    22. Morris A. Davis & Jesse Gregory & Daniel Hartley, 2023. "Preferences over the Racial Composition of Neighborhoods: Estimates and Implications," Working Paper Series WP 2023-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    23. repec:cdl:econwp:qt5923m4w4 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Ellora Derenoncourt, 2022. "Can You Move to Opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(2), pages 369-408, February.
    25. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren, 2018. "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility II: County-Level Estimates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1163-1228.
    26. Dai, Tianran & Schiff, Nathan, 2023. "The structure and growth of ethnic neighborhoods," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    27. Nathaniel Baum-Snow, 2007. "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 775-805.
    28. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren & Lawrence F. Katz, 2016. "The Effects of Exposure to Better Neighborhoods on Children: New Evidence from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 855-902, April.
    29. Patrick Bayer & Robert McMillan & Alvin Murphy & Christopher Timmins, 2016. "A Dynamic Model of Demand for Houses and Neighborhoods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 893-942, May.
    30. Bayer, Patrick & Timmins, Christopher, 2005. "On the equilibrium properties of locational sorting models," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 462-477, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Swati Dhingra & Fjolla Kondirolli & Stephen Machin, 2025. "Citizen training and the urban waste footprint," CEP Discussion Papers dp2124, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Merlino, Luca Paolo & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich & Wren-Lewis, Liam, 2024. "The long run impact of childhood interracial contact on residential segregation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    2. repec:osf:socarx:hyau2_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chapelle, Guillaume & Domènech Arumí, Gerard & Gobbi, Paula Eugenia, 2023. "Housing, Neighborhoods and Inequality," CEPR Discussion Papers 17969, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Caetano, Gregorio & Maheshri, Vikram, 2017. "School segregation and the identification of tipping behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 115-135.
    5. Victoria Gregory & Julian Kozlowski & Hannah Rubinton, 2022. "The Impact of Racial Segregation on College Attainment in Spatial Equilibrium," Working Papers 2022-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 27 Nov 2024.
    6. Gregorio Caetano & Vikram Maheshri, 2025. "A unified empirical framework to study neighborhood segregation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(3), pages 1023-1057, July.
    7. Cody Cook & Pearl Z. Li & Ariel J. Binder, 2023. "Where to Build Affordable Housing? Evaluating the Tradeoffs of Location," Working Papers 23-62, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    8. Baum-Snow, Nathaniel & Hartley, Daniel, 2020. "Accounting for central neighborhood change, 1980–2010," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    9. Florent Dubois & Christophe Muller, 2017. "Segregation and the Perception of the Minority," Working Papers halshs-01520308, HAL.
    10. Aliprantis, Dionissi & Carroll, Daniel R. & Young, Eric R., 2024. "What explains neighborhood sorting by income and race?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    11. Kulkarni, Nirupama & Malmendier, Ulrike, 2022. "Homeownership segregation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 123-149.
    12. Malone, Thom, 2020. "There goes the neighborhood does tipping exist amongst income groups?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    13. Caetano, Gregorio & Maheshri, Vikram, 2017. "School segregation and the identification of tipping behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 115-135.
    14. Cavit Baran & Eric Chyn & Bryan A. Stuart, 2024. "The Great Migration and Educational Opportunity," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 354-398, July.
    15. Trevor Kollmann & Simone Marsiglio & Sandy Suardi & Marco Tolotti, 2021. "Social interactions, residential segregation and the dynamics of tipping," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1355-1388, September.
    16. Nicolai V. Kuminoff & V. Kerry Smith & Christopher Timmins, 2010. "The New Economics of Equilibrium Sorting and its Transformational Role for Policy Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 16349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. David Card & Alexandre Mas & Jesse Rothstein, 2008. "Tipping and the Dynamics of Segregation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 177-218.
    18. Aaronson, Daniel & Faber, Jacob & Hartley, Daniel & Mazumder, Bhashkar & Sharkey, Patrick, 2021. "The long-run effects of the 1930s HOLC “redlining” maps on place-based measures of economic opportunity and socioeconomic success," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    19. Logan, Trevon D. & Parman, John M., 2017. "The National Rise in Residential Segregation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 127-170, March.
    20. Nicolai V. Kuminoff & Jaren C. Pope, 2014. "Do “Capitalization Effects” For Public Goods Reveal The Public'S Willingness To Pay?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1227-1250, November.
    21. Tabellini, Marco, 2020. "Racial Heterogeneity and Local Government Finances: Evidence from the Great Migration," CEPR Discussion Papers 14319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/discussion-papers/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.