IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cep/cepcvd/cepcovid-19-021.html

The impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit on the UK economy: early evidence in 2021

Author

Listed:
  • Josh De Lyon
  • Swati Dhingra

Abstract

We use real-time firm survey data to describe trends in the UK economy in early 2021. As of April 2021, business activity and expectations for the future have improved. However, real wage growth is down and firms are reporting that average input costs have increased. Firms are reporting that Brexit has affected their operations, leading to a fall in exports to the EU for a quarter of exporters and a fall in imports from the EU for a third of importers. Increased border costs are the most cited Brexit-related issue. We discuss how policies can support workers and firms in adapting to the structural changes from Covid-19 and Brexit.

Suggested Citation

  • Josh De Lyon & Swati Dhingra, 2021. "The impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit on the UK economy: early evidence in 2021," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-021, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepcvd:cepcovid-19-021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cepcovid-19-021.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Davies, 2021. "Prices and inflation in a pandemic - a micro data approach," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-017, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Brian Bell & Mihai Codreanu & Stephen Machin, 2020. "What can previous recessions tell us about the Covid-19 downturn?," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. De Lyon, Josh & Pessoa, Joao Paulo, 2021. "Worker and firm responses to trade shocks: The UK-China case," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Peter Lambert & John Van Reenen, 2021. "A major wave of UK business closures by April 2021? The scale of the problem and what can be done," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Capucine Riom & Anna Valero, 2020. "The business response to Covid-19: the CEP-CBI survey on technology adoption," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-009, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Swati Dhingra & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "Expecting Brexit," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 495-519, August.
    2. Ahmed Rakha & Hansi Hettiarachchi & Dina Rady & Mohamed Medhat Gaber & Emad Rakha & Mohammed M. Abdelsamea, 2021. "Predicting the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom Using Time-Series Mining," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Dimitrios Paraskevadakis & Adeyeri Ifeoluwa, 2022. "An industry-level analysis of the post-Brexit and post-Covid 19 Ro-Ro ferry market and critical maritime freight transport links between the UK and the EU," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, December.
    4. Jun Du & Oleksandr Shepotylo & Xiaocan Yuan, 2025. "How did the Brexit uncertainty impact services exports of UK firms?," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 80-104, March.
    5. Paul Lavery & Marina Spaliara & Holger Görg, 2024. "Private equity buyouts & firm exporting in crisis periods: Exploring a new channel," Working Papers 2024_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Lavery, Paul & Spaliara, Marina-Eliza & Görg, Holger, 2024. "Private equity buyouts & firm exporting in crisis periods: Exploring a new channel," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 306864, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    7. Raghav Gupta & Md Mahadi Hasan & Syed Zahurul Islam & Tahmina Yasmin & Jasim Uddin, 2023. "Evaluating the Brexit and COVID-19’s influence on the UK economy: A data analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(6), pages 1-33, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juliana Oliveira-Cunha & Capucine Riom & Anna Valero, 2021. "The business response to Covid-19 one year on: findings from the second wave of the CEP-CBI survey on technology adoption," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-024, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. van Ark, Bart & de Vries, Klaas & Erumban, Abdul, 2021. "How To Not Miss A Productivity Revival Once Again," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 255, pages 9-24, February.
    3. Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2020. "Why Working From Home Will Stick," Working Papers 2020-174, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    4. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Jahen F. Rezki & Arief Ramayandi & Aryo Sasongko & Dinda T. Andariesta, 2022. "The Potential Scarring Effect Of Covid19 On Productivity And Labor Market: The Case Of Indonesia," Working Papers WP/09/2022, Bank Indonesia.
    5. Cotofan, Maria & Matakos, Konstantinos, 2023. "Adapting or compounding? The effects of recurring labour shocks on stated and revealed preferences for redistribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121297, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Mikhail G. Kuzyk, Kira P. Sergeeva, 2024. "Robotization as a Factor of Russian Firms’ Adaptation to Non-Economic Shocks," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(2), pages 522-550.
    7. Brian Bell & Nicholas Bloom & Jack Blundell, 2021. "This time is not so different: income dynamics during the Covid-19 recession," POID Working Papers 012, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Stern, Nicholas & Sivropoulos-Valero, Anna Valero, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114385, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Nicholas Stern & Anna Valero, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," CEP Discussion Papers dp1773, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Maggie R. Jones & Bradley Setzler, 2024. "Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization," Working Papers 24-78, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Paul Lavery & Marina Spaliara & Holger Görg, 2024. "Private equity buyouts & firm exporting in crisis periods: Exploring a new channel," Working Papers 2024_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    12. Stern, Nicholas & Valero, Anna, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    13. Maria Mouratidou & Mirit K. Grabarski, 2022. "In the Eye of the Hurricane: Careers under Lockdown," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-15, November.
    14. Hermundsdottir, Fanny & Haneberg, Dag Håkon & Aspelund, Arild, 2022. "Analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on environmental innovations in manufacturing firms," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Aitor Irastorza-Fadrique & Peter Levell & Matthias Parey, 2023. "Household responses to trade shocks," IFS Working Papers W23/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Eichengreen, Barry, 2024. "Globalization and growth in a bipolar world," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 714-722.
    17. Francesco Pastore, 2023. "Covid-19 and the youth-to-adult unemployment gap," World of Labour, LISER, pages 500-500, January.
    18. Ria Ivandic & Tom Kirchmaier & Ben Linton, 2020. "Changing patterns of domestic abuse during Covid-19 lockdown," CEP Discussion Papers dp1729, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    19. Lutz Bellmann & Pauline Bourgeon & Christina Gathmann & Christian Kagerl & David Marguerit & Ludivine Martin & Laura Pohlan & Duncan Roth, 2021. "Digitalisierungsschub in Firmen während der Corona-Pandemie [Digitalisation in Companies: The COVID-19 Pandemic as a Push Factor]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(9), pages 713-718, September.
    20. Costin Radu Boldea & Bogdan Ion Boldea & Tiberiu Iancu, 2023. "The Pandemic Waves’ Impact on the Crude Oil Price and the Rise of Consumer Price Index: Case Study for Six European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-15, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:cepcvd:cepcovid-19-021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/covid-19-analyses/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.