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Predicting the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom Using Time-Series Mining

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed Rakha

    (School of Business, Nottingham University, Nottingham NG8 1BB, UK
    Denotes equal contribution.)

  • Hansi Hettiarachchi

    (School of Computing and Digital Technology, Birmingham City University, Birmingham B4 7XG, UK
    Denotes equal contribution.)

  • Dina Rady

    (Economics Department, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA)

  • Mohamed Medhat Gaber

    (School of Computing and Digital Technology, Birmingham City University, Birmingham B4 7XG, UK
    Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering, Galala University, Suez 435611, Egypt)

  • Emad Rakha

    (School of Medicine, Nottingham University, Nottingham NG8 1BB, UK)

  • Mohammed M. Abdelsamea

    (School of Computing and Digital Technology, Birmingham City University, Birmingham B4 7XG, UK
    Faculty of Computers and Information, Assiut University, Assiut 71515, Egypt)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought economic activity to a near standstill as many countries imposed very strict restrictions on movement to halt the spread of the virus. This study aims at assessing the economic impacts of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom (UK) using artificial intelligence (AI) and data from previous economic crises to predict future economic impacts. The macroeconomic indicators, gross domestic products (GDP) and GDP growth, and data on the performance of three primary industries in the UK (the construction, production and service industries) were analysed using a comparison with the pattern of previous economic crises. In this research, we experimented with the effectiveness of both continuous and categorical time-series forecasting on predicting future values to generate more accurate and useful results in the economic domain. Continuous value predictions indicate that GDP growth in 2021 will remain steady, but at around −8.5% contraction, compared to the baseline figures before the pandemic. Further, the categorical predictions indicate that there will be no quarterly drop in GDP following the first quarter of 2021. This study provided evidence-based data on the economic effects of COVID-19 that can be used to plan necessary recovery procedures and to take appropriate actions to support the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed Rakha & Hansi Hettiarachchi & Dina Rady & Mohamed Medhat Gaber & Emad Rakha & Mohammed M. Abdelsamea, 2021. "Predicting the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom Using Time-Series Mining," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:9:y:2021:i:4:p:137-:d:644305
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Iwona Markowicz, 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Situation of the Unemployed in Poland. A Study Using Survival Analysis Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, October.

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