IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/24-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Who Scars the Easiest? College Quality and the Effects of Graduating into a Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Garrett Anstreicher
  • Lois Miller

Abstract

Graduating from college into a recession is associated with earnings losses, but less is known about how these effects vary across colleges. Using restricted-use data from the National Survey of College Graduates, we study how the effects of graduating into worse economic conditions vary over college quality in the context of the Great Recession. We find that earnings losses are concentrated among graduates from relatively high-quality colleges. Key mechanisms include substitution out of the labor force and into graduate school, decreased graduate degree completion, and differences in the economic stability of fields of study between graduates of high- and low-quality colleges.

Suggested Citation

  • Garrett Anstreicher & Lois Miller, 2024. "Who Scars the Easiest? College Quality and the Effects of Graduating into a Recession," Working Papers 24-47, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2024/adrm/ces/CES-WP-24-47.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2024
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markus Nagler & Marc Piopiunik & Martin R. West, 2020. "Weak Markets, Strong Teachers: Recession at Career Start and Teacher Effectiveness," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(2), pages 453-500.
    2. Bryan A. Stuart, 2022. "The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 42-74, January.
    3. Eleanor Wiske Dillon & Jeffrey Andrew Smith, 2020. "The Consequences of Academic Match between Students and Colleges," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 55(3), pages 767-808.
    4. Sarah R. Cohodes & Joshua S. Goodman, 2014. "Merit Aid, College Quality, and College Completion: Massachusetts' Adams Scholarship as an In-Kind Subsidy," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 251-285, October.
    5. Johnathan G. Conzelmann & Steven W. Hemelt & Brad Hershbein & Shawn M. Martin & Andrew Simon & Kevin M. Stange, 2022. "Grads on the Go: Measuring College-Specific Labor Markets for Graduates," NBER Working Papers 30088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Black Dan & Daniel Kermit & Smith Jeffrey, 2005. "College Quality and Wages in the United States," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 415-443, August.
    7. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    8. Joseph G. Altonji & Lisa B. Kahn & Jamin D. Speer, 2016. "Cashier or Consultant? Entry Labor Market Conditions, Field of Study, and Career Success," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 361-401.
    9. Till von Wachter, 2020. "The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 168-194, Fall.
    10. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    11. Stacy Berg Dale & Alan B. Krueger, 2002. "Estimating the Payoff to Attending a More Selective College: An Application of Selection on Observables and Unobservables," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1491-1527.
    12. Stacy B. Dale & Alan B. Krueger, 2014. "Estimating the Effects of College Characteristics over the Career Using Administrative Earnings Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(2), pages 323-358.
    13. Liu, Kai & Salvanes, Kjell G. & Sørensen, Erik Ø., 2016. "Good skills in bad times: Cyclical skill mismatch and the long-term effects of graduating in a recession," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 3-17.
    14. Raj Chetty & John N Friedman & Emmanuel Saez & Nicholas Turner & Danny Yagan, 2020. "Income Segregation and Intergenerational Mobility Across Colleges in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(3), pages 1567-1633.
    15. Christopher Huckfeldt, 2022. "Understanding the Scarring Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1273-1310, April.
    16. Bedard, Kelly & Herman, Douglas A., 2008. "Who goes to graduate/professional school? The importance of economic fluctuations, undergraduate field, and ability," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 197-210, April.
    17. Mark Hoekstra, 2009. "The Effect of Attending the Flagship State University on Earnings: A Discontinuity-Based Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 717-724, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gabriele Lucchetti & Alessandro Ruggieri, 2023. "Unlucky migrants: Scarring effect of recessions on the assimilation of the foreign born," Discussion Papers 2023-09, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    2. Kim, Sun Hyung, 2023. "The importance of social skills in recovery from graduating in a recession," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 387-411.
    3. Costas-Fernández, Julián & Morando, Greta & Holford, Angus, 2023. "The effect of foreign students in higher education on native students’ outcomes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Bičáková, Alena & Cortes, Guido Matias & Mazza, Jacopo, 2023. "Make your own luck: The wage gains from starting college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Fraenkel, Rebecca Cannon, 2022. "Local labor markets and job match quality: Teachers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Toman Barsbai & Andreas Steinmayr & Christoph Winter, 2022. "Immigrating into a Recession: Evidence from Family Migrants to the U.S," Working Papers 2022-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    7. Milla, Joniada, 2017. "The Context-Bound University Selectivity Premium," IZA Discussion Papers 11025, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Ghazala Azmat & Jack Britton, 2024. "Labour Market Returns to Higher Education," Post-Print hal-04709561, HAL.
    9. Fernando Saltiel & Cody Tuttle, 2023. "Business Cycles and Police Hires," Working Papers 288, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    10. Britton, Jack & van der Erve, Laura & Belfield, Chris & Vignoles, Anna & Dickson, Matt & Zhu, Yu & Walker, Ian & Dearden, Lorraine & Sibieta, Luke & Buscha, Franz, 2022. "How much does degree choice matter?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Nicolás de Roux & Evan Riehl, 2019. "Isolating Peer Effects in the Returns to College Selectivity," Documentos CEDE 17413, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    12. Lisa Simon, 2019. "Microeconometric Analyses on Determinants of Individual Labour Market Outcomes," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 83.
    13. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Robert E. Moore, 2022. "Some Like it Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 193-243, June.
    14. Sandra E. Black & Jeffrey T. Denning & Jesse Rothstein, 2023. "Winners and Losers? The Effect of Gaining and Losing Access to Selective Colleges on Education and Labor Market Outcomes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 26-67, January.
    15. Chernina, Eugenia & Gimpelson, Vladimir, 2023. "Do wages grow with experience? Deciphering the Russian puzzle," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 545-563.
    16. Brian Clark & Clément Joubert & Arnaud Maurel, 2017. "The career prospects of overeducated Americans," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-29, December.
    17. Cockx, Bart & Ghirelli, Corinna, 2016. "Scars of recessions in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 162-176.
    18. Andrews, Rodney J. & Imberman, Scott A. & Lovenheim, Michael F., 2020. "Recruiting and supporting low-income, high-achieving students at flagship universities," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. ASAI Yukiko & Dmitri K. KOUSTAS, 2021. "Temporary Work Contracts and Female Labor Market Outcomes," Discussion papers 21071, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. Guo, Junjie, 2022. "The persistent impact of multiple offers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dawn Anderson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.