IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/14-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Aggregate Impact Of Online Retail

Author

Listed:
  • Allen Tran

Abstract

To study the impact of online retail on aggregate welfare, I use a spatial model to calculate a new measure of store level retail productivity and each store's equilibrium response to increased competitive pressure from online retailers. The model is estimated on confidential store-level data spanning the universe of US retail stores, detailed local-level demographic data and shortest-route data between locations. From counterfactual exercises mimicking improvements in shipping and increased internet access, I estimate that improvements in online retail increased aggregate welfare from retail activities by 13.4 per cent. Roughly two-thirds of the increase can be attributed to welfare improvements holding fixed market shares, with the remainder due to reallocation. Surprisingly, 8.2 percent of firms actually benefit as they absorb market share from closed stores. Finally, I estimate that the proposed Marketplace Fairness Act would claw back roughly one-third of sales that would otherwise have gone to online retailers between 2007-12.

Suggested Citation

  • Allen Tran, 2014. "The Aggregate Impact Of Online Retail," Working Papers 14-23, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:14-23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/ces/wp/2014/CES-WP-14-23.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Davis, 2006. "Spatial competition in retail markets: movie theaters," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(4), pages 964-982, December.
    2. Lesley Chiou, 2009. "Empirical Analysis of Competition between Wal‐Mart and Other Retail Channels," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 285-322, June.
    3. Allan Collard-Wexler & Jan De Loecker, 2015. "Reallocation and Technology: Evidence from the US Steel Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 131-171, January.
    4. Jaap H. Abbring & Jeffrey R. Campbell & Nan Yang, 2010. "Simple Markov-perfect industry dynamics," Working Paper Series WP-2010-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison, 2009. "Tax Sensitivity and Home State Preferences in Internet Purchasing," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 53-71, August.
    6. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    7. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Reiss, Peter C, 1991. "Entry and Competition in Concentrated Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 977-1009, October.
    8. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 2005. "Market Size Matters," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 1-25, March.
    9. Peter Davis, 2006. "Spatial competition in retail markets: movie theaters," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 37(4), pages 964-982, December.
    10. Walter Y. Oi, 1992. "Productivity in the Distributive Trades: The Shopper and the Economies of Massed Reserves," NBER Chapters, in: Output Measurement in the Service Sectors, pages 161-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Guido Menzio & Greg Kaplan, 2013. "Five Facts About Price Dispersion," 2013 Meeting Papers 995, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Costas Arkolakis, 2010. "Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1151-1199.
    13. Morales, Eduardo & Sheu, Gloria & Zahler, Andrés, 2011. "Gravity and extended gravity: estimating a structural model of export entry," MPRA Paper 30311, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, An-Hsiang & Siebert, Ralph B., 2022. "The competitive effects of declining entry costs over time: Evidence from the static random access memory market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Hackl, Franz & Kummer, Michael E. & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Zulehner, Christine, 2014. "Market structure and market performance in E-commerce," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 199-218.
    3. An-Hsiang Liu & Ralph Siebert, 2020. "The Competitive Effects of Declining Entry Costs over Time: Evidence from the Static Random Access Memory Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 8552, CESifo.
    4. Martin Lábaj & Karol Morvay & Peter Silaniè & Christoph Weiss, 2014. "Market Structure in Transition: Entry and Competition in Slovakia," Department of Economic Policy Working Paper Series 005, Department of Economic Policy, Faculty of National Economy, University of Economics in Bratislava.
    5. Martin Lábaj & Karol Morvay & Peter Silanič & Christoph Weiss & Biliana Yontcheva, 2018. "Market structure and competition in transition: results from a spatial analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(15), pages 1694-1715, March.
    6. Victor Aguirregabiria & Margaret Slade, 2017. "Empirical models of firms and industries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1445-1488, December.
    7. Stijn Ferrari, 2010. "Discriminatory fees, coordination and investment in shared ATM networks," Working Paper Research 184, National Bank of Belgium.
    8. Stéphane Turolla, 2016. "Spatial Competition in the French Supermarket Industry," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 121-122, pages 213-259.
    9. Joseph Pancras & S. Sriram & V. Kumar, 2012. "Empirical Investigation of Retail Expansion and Cannibalization in a Dynamic Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(11), pages 2001-2018, November.
    10. Mitsukuni Nishida, 2015. "Estimating a Model of Strategic Network Choice: The Convenience-Store Industry in Okinawa," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 20-38, January.
    11. Laura Nurski & Frank Verboven, 2016. "Exclusive Dealing as a Barrier to Entry? Evidence from Automobiles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(3), pages 1156-1188.
    12. Peter Davis & Pasquale Schiraldi, 2014. "The flexible coefficient multinomial logit (FC-MNL) model of demand for differentiated products," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(1), pages 32-63, March.
    13. O. Cem Ozturk & Sriram Venkataraman & Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 2016. "Price Reactions to Rivals’ Local Channel Exits," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(4), pages 588-604, July.
    14. Jan De Loecker & Johannes Van Biesebroeck, 2016. "Effect of International Competition on Firm Productivity and Market Power," NBER Working Papers 21994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Katja Seim & Joel Waldfogel, 2013. "Public Monopoly and Economic Efficiency: Evidence from the Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board's Entry Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 831-862, April.
    16. Pereira, Pedro & Ribeiro, Tiago & Vareda, João, 2013. "Delineating markets for bundles with consumer level data: The case of triple-play," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 760-773.
    17. Shinya Sugawara, 2017. "Firm‐Driven Management of Longevity Risk: Analysis of Lump‐Sum Forward Payments in Japanese Nursing Homes," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 169-204, February.
    18. Nathan H. Miller & Matthew Osborne, 2014. "Spatial differentiation and price discrimination in the cement industry: evidence from a structural model," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(2), pages 221-247, June.
    19. Nicholas Economides & Przemyslaw Jeziorski, 2017. "Mobile Money in Tanzania," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 815-837, November.
    20. Margaret Aksoy-Pierson & Gad Allon & Awi Federgruen, 2013. "Price Competition Under Mixed Multinomial Logit Demand Functions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(8), pages 1817-1835, August.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:14-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dawn Anderson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.