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Job-to-Job Flows and the Business Cycle

Author

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  • Henry Hyatt
  • Erika McEntarfer

Abstract

Job-to-job flows represent one of the most significant opportunities for the development of new economic statistics, having been made possible by the increased availability of matched employer-employee datasets for statistical tabulation. In this paper, we analyze a new database of job-to-job flows from 1999 to 2010 in the United States. This analysis provides definitive benchmarks on gross employment flows, origin and destination industries, nonemployment, and associated earnings. To demonstrate the usefulness of these statistics, we evaluate them in the context of the recessions of 2001 and 2007, as well as the economic expansion between the two. We find a sharp drop in job mobility in the Great Recession, much sharper than the previous recession, and higher earnings penalties for job transitions with an intervening nonemployment spell. This fall in job mobility is found within all age groups but is largest among younger workers. We also examine outcomes for displaced workers and examine labor market adjustment in several specific industries. Generally, we find higher rates of nonemployment upon job separation, increasing rates of industry change and higher earnings penalties from job change in the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2012. "Job-to-Job Flows and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 12-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:12-04
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    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/ces/wp/2012/CES-WP-12-04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melissa Bjelland & Bruce Fallick & John Haltiwanger & Erika McEntarfer, 2011. "Employer-to-Employer Flows in the United States: Estimates Using Linked Employer-Employee Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 493-505, October.
    2. Henry S. Farber, 2011. "Job Loss in the Great Recession: Historial Perspective from the Displaced Workers Survey, 1984-2010," Working Papers 1309, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    3. Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2012. "Job-to-Job Flows in the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 580-583, May.
    4. AMOS GOLAN & JULIA LANE & ERIKA McENTARFER, 2007. "The Dynamics of Worker Reallocation within and across Industries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(293), pages 1-20, February.
    5. Maxim Poletaev & Chris Robinson, 2008. "Human Capital Specificity: Evidence from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles and Displaced Worker Surveys, 1984-2000," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(3), pages 387-420, July.
    6. John J. Abowd & John Haltiwanger & Julia Lane, 2004. "Integrated Longitudinal Employer-Employee Data for the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 224-229, May.
    7. Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1992. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 439-479.
    8. Bruce C. Fallick & Charles A. Fleischman, 2004. "Employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market: the complete picture of gross worker flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Janna E. Johnson & Morris M. Kleiner, 2017. "Is Occupational Licensing a Barrier to Interstate Migration?," NBER Working Papers 24107, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer & John Haltiwanger, 2014. "Cyclical Reallocation of Workers Across Large and Small Employers," 2014 Meeting Papers 735, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. repec:oup:qjecon:v:133:y:2018:i:3:p:1331-1393. is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer & Kevin McKinney & Stephen Tibbets & Doug Walton, 2014. "JOB-TO-JOB (J2J) Flows: New Labor Market Statistics From Linked Employer-Employee Data," Working Papers 14-34, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Mukoyama, Toshihiko, 2014. "The cyclicality of job-to-job transitions and its implications for aggregate productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-17.
    6. Henry Hyatt & James Spletzer, 2013. "The recent decline in employment dynamics," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Isaac Sorkin, 2018. "Ranking Firms Using Revealed Preference," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 133(3), pages 1331-1393.
    8. Fariha Kamal & C.J. Krizan, 2012. "Decomposing Aggregate Trade Flows: New Evidence from U.S. Traders," Working Papers 12-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    9. John Haltiwanger & Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2015. "Cyclical Reallocation of Workers Across Employers by Firm Size and Firm Wage," Working Papers 15-13, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    10. Florence Honore, 2014. "From Common Ground To Breaking New Ground: Founding Team's Prior Shared Experience And Start-Up Performance," Working Papers 14-39, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Martin, Daniel & Pierrard, Olivier, 2014. "On-the-job search and cyclical unemployment: Crowding out vs. vacancy effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 235-250.
    12. Peter Diamond, 2013. "Cyclical Unemployment, Structural Unemployment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(3), pages 410-455, August.
    13. Henry R. Hyatt & James R. Spletzer, 2016. "The Shifting Job Tenure Distribution†," Working Papers 16-12r, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    14. Bulent Guler, 2013. "Dual Income Couples and Interstate Migration," 2013 Meeting Papers 898, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Yaya Sissoko & Brian W. Sloboda, 2016. "Employment Dynamics by Gender in Pennsylvania since the Great Recession," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 46(1), pages 91-106, Winter.
    16. Henry R. Hyatt, 2015. "The decline in job-to-job flows," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 175-175, July.
    17. Johnson, Janna & Kleiner, Morris M., 2017. "Is Occupational Licensing a Barrier to Interstate Migration?," Staff Report 561, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. John C. Haltiwanger & Henry R. Hyatt & Lisa B. Kahn & Erika McEntarfer, 2018. "Cyclical Job Ladders by Firm Size and Firm Wage," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 52-85, April.
    19. Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer & Ken Ueda & Alexandria Zhang, 2016. "Interstate Migration and Employer-to-Employer Transitions in the U.S.: New Evidence from Administrative Records Data," Working Papers 16-44r, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    20. Lisa B. Kahn & Erika McEntarfer, 2014. "Employment Cyclicality and Firm Quality," NBER Working Papers 20698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Wall, Howard, 2013. "Robbing Peter to Pay Paul: The Employment Effects of the Missouri Quality Jobs Program," MPRA Paper 50605, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Tomaz Cajner & Isabel Cairo, 2013. "The Fading Dynamism of the US Labor Market: The Role of Demographics," 2013 Meeting Papers 1208, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Henry R. Hyatt & James R. Spletzer, 2014. "Hires, Separations, And The Job Tenure Distribution In Administrative Earnings Records," Working Papers 14-29, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    24. repec:spr:demogr:v:55:y:2018:i:6:d:10.1007_s13524-018-0720-5 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    job flows; matched employer-employee data;

    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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