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Job-to-Job Flows and the Business Cycle

  • Henry Hyatt
  • Erika McEntarfer

Job-to-job flows represent one of the most significant opportunities for the development of new economic statistics, having been made possible by the increased availability of matched employer-employee datasets for statistical tabulation. In this paper, we analyze a new database of job-to-job flows from 1999 to 2010 in the United States. This analysis provides definitive benchmarks on gross employment flows, origin and destination industries, nonemployment, and associated earnings. To demonstrate the usefulness of these statistics, we evaluate them in the context of the recessions of 2001 and 2007, as well as the economic expansion between the two. We find a sharp drop in job mobility in the Great Recession, much sharper than the previous recession, and higher earnings penalties for job transitions with an intervening nonemployment spell. This fall in job mobility is found within all age groups but is largest among younger workers. We also examine outcomes for displaced workers and examine labor market adjustment in several specific industries. Generally, we find higher rates of nonemployment upon job separation, increasing rates of industry change and higher earnings penalties from job change in the Great Recession.

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File URL: ftp://ftp2.census.gov/ces/wp/2012/CES-WP-12-04.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012
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Paper provided by Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau in its series Working Papers with number 12-04.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:12-04
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  1. Kristen Keith & Abagail McWilliams, 1999. "The Returns to mobility and job search by gender," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 52(3), pages 460-477, April.
  2. Melissa Bjelland & Bruce Fallick & John Haltiwanger & Erika McEntarfer, 2010. "Employer-to-Employer Flows in the United States: Estimates Using Linked Employer-Employee Data," Working Papers 10-26, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  3. Amos Golan & Julia I. Lane & Erika McEntarfer, 2005. "The Dynamics of Worker Reallocation Within and Across Industries," Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Technical Papers 2005-02, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  4. Bruce Fallick & Charles A. Fleischman, 2004. "Employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market: the complete picture of gross worker flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Maxim Poletaev & Chris Robinson, 2008. "Human Capital Specificity: Evidence from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles and Displaced Worker Surveys, 1984-2000," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(3), pages 387-420, 07.
  6. John M. Abowd & John C. Haltiwanger & Julia I. Lane, 2004. "Integrated Longitudinal Employee-Employer Data for the United States," Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Technical Papers 2004-02, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  7. Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2012. "Job-to-Job Flows in the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 580-83, May.
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