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Measuring the “Tailwind” in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Argentina

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  • Emilio Ocampo

Abstract

This paper introduces an index that seeks to objectively measure tailwind, a term used to describe favorable external conditions in commodity and financial markets that can lead to improved macroeconomic performance. Argentina is and has historically been a net exporter of commodities and a net importer of capital, therefore it benefits from rising prices in international commodity markets and the availability of low cost long-term capital. The index is partly based on the framework of “push” and “pull” factors developed in the early 1990s to explain international capital flows into emerging markets economies and my own experience as an international investment banker during the nineties.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilio Ocampo, 2016. "Measuring the “Tailwind” in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 600, Universidad del CEMA.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:600
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    File URL: http://www.ucema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/documentos/600.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 143-197, June.
    2. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    3. Chuhan, Punam*Claessens,Constantijn A.*Mamingi,, 1993. "Equity and bond flows to Asia and Latin America : the role of global and country factors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1160, The World Bank.
    4. Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman, 1992. "Capital Inflows to Latin America; The 1970's and the 1990's," IMF Working Papers 92/85, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Aqib Aslam & Samya Beidas-Strom & Rudolfs Bems & Oya Celasun & Sinem Kılıç Çelik & Zsoka Koczan, 2016. "Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom," IMF Working Papers 16/27, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Emilio Ocampo, 2015. "Commodity Price Booms and Populist Cycles. An Explanation of Argentina’s Decline in the 20th Century," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 562, Universidad del CEMA.
    8. Eugenio M Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Damien Puy, 2015. "Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets; Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 15/127, International Monetary Fund.
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    Keywords

    Tailwind; push factors; economic policy; Argentina; emerging markets.;

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