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Trucking Industry Adoption of Information Technology: A structural Multivariate Discrete Choice Model

  • Golob, Thomas F.
  • Reagan, Amelia C.
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    Modern panel surveys frequently suffer from high and likely non-ignorable attrition, and transportation surveys suffer from poor travel time estimates. This paper examines new methods for adjusting forecasts and model estimates to account for these problems. The methods we describe are illustrated using a new panel survey of 1500 commuters in San Diego, California. These data are being collected to evaluate a federally-funded “Congestion Pricing†experiment investigating the impacts of allowing solo drivers to pay to use freeway carpool lanes. The panel survey, begun in Fall 1997, collects data on travel behavior and attitudes at six-month intervals through telephone interviews. The panel sample is refreshed with new respondents at each wave to counteract the attrition between waves. Both the original and refreshment samples are stratified on commuters’ mode choice (solo drive in free lanes, pay to solo drive in the carpool lanes, or carpool for free in carpool lanes) to insure sufficient sample size for estimating our models.

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    File URL: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/7kv5f17n.pdf;origin=repeccitec
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    Paper provided by University of California Transportation Center in its series University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers with number qt7kv5f17n.

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    Date of creation: 01 Sep 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt7kv5f17n
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    1. van Wissen, Leo J. & Golob, Thomas F., 1990. "Simultaneous Equation Systems Involving Binary Choice Variables," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5t28k04n, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-57, September.
    3. Hall, Randolph W. & Intihar, Chris, 1997. "Commercial Vehicle Operations: Government Interfaces And Intelligent Transportation Systems," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt9p272488, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    4. M. Keane & R. Moffitt, . "A structural model of multiple welfare program participation and labor supply," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1080-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    5. Regan, Amelia C. & Golob, Thomas F., 2000. "Trucking industry perceptions of congestion problems and potential solutions in maritime intermodal operations in California," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 587-605, November.
    6. Ulf Olsson, 1979. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the polychoric correlation coefficient," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 443-460, December.
    7. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
    8. John Geweke & Michael Keane & David Runkle, 1994. "Alternative computational approaches to inference in the multinomial probit model," Staff Report 170, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. McFadden, Daniel & Ruud, Paul A, 1994. "Estimation by Simulation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 591-608, November.
    10. Golob, Thomas F. & Regan, A C, 1999. "Freight Industry Attitudes Towards Policies to Reduce Congestion," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt57r4d3fd, University of California Transportation Center.
    11. Golob, Thomas F. & Regan, Amelia C., 1999. "Freight industry attitudes towards policies to reduce congestion," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3fq6x2sq, University of California Transportation Center.
    12. P. Bentler, 1983. "Some contributions to efficient statistics in structural models: Specification and estimation of moment structures," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 493-517, December.
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