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Induced Demand: An Urban Metropolitan Perspective

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  • Cervero, Robert

Abstract

Most studies of induced travel demand have been carried out at a fine to medium grain of analysis- either the project, corridor, county, or metropolitan levels. The focus has been on urban settings since cities and suburbs are where the politics of road investment most dramatically get played out. The problem assigned to induce demand- like the inability to stave off traffic congestion and curb air pollution- are quintessentially urban in nature. Â This paper reviews, assesses, and critiques the state-of-the-field in studying induced travel demand at metropolitan and sub-metropolitan grains of analysis. Its focus is on empirical and ex post examinations of the induced demand phenomenon as opposed to forecasts or simulation. A meta-analysis is conducted with an eye toward presenting an overall average elasticity estimate of induced demand effects based on the best, most reliable research to date.Â

Suggested Citation

  • Cervero, Robert, 2001. "Induced Demand: An Urban Metropolitan Perspective," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5pj337gw, University of California Transportation Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt5pj337gw
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Mark & Gillen, David & Dobbins, Allison & Huang, Yuanlin & Puvathingal, Mohnish, 1993. "The Air Quality Impacts of Urban Highway Capacity Expansion: Traffic Generation and Land Use Change," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6zz3k76c, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Goodwin, Phil, 1999. "Transformation of transport policy in Great Britain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(7-8), pages 655-669.
    3. Robert Noland & William Cowart, 2000. "Analysis of Metropolitan Highway Capacity and the growth in vehicle miles of travel," Transportation, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 363-390, December.
    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    5. Boarnet, Marlon G., 1995. "Highways and Economic Productivity: Interpreting Recent Evidence," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt4g79984s, University of California Transportation Center.
    6. Patrick DeCorla-Souza & Harry Cohen, 1999. "Estimating induced travel for evaluation of metropolitan highway expansion," Transportation, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 249-262, August.
    7. Hansen, Mark & Huang, Yuanlin, 1997. "Road supply and traffic in California urban areas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 205-218, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cervero, Robert, 2001. "Road Expansion, Urban Growth, and Induced Travel: A Path Analysis," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt05x370hr, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Fagnant, Daniel J. & Kockelman, Kara, 2015. "Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 167-181.

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    Architecture;

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