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A Dynamic Forecasting System for Vehicle Markets with Clean-Fuel Vehicles


  • Bunch, David S
  • Brownstone, David
  • Golob, Thomas F


This research deals with demand for automobiles and light-duty and medium-duty trucks. Planners concerned with energy consumption, air quality and the provision of transportation facilities must have dependable forecasts of vehicle ownership and use from both the residential (personal-use vehicle) sectors and the fleet (commercial and governmental sectors). As long as vehicles evolved slowly, it was possible to base such forecasts on extrapolations of observed demand. However, in an era of increasing environmental awareness, mandated in part by the US Clean Air Act Amendments (US EPA, 1990), government agencies are now concerned with promoting clean-fuel vehicles; vehicle manufacturers are faced with designing and marketing clean-fuel vehicles; and suppliers of fuels other than gasoline must plan infrastructure and pricing policies.

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  • Bunch, David S & Brownstone, David & Golob, Thomas F, 1995. "A Dynamic Forecasting System for Vehicle Markets with Clean-Fuel Vehicles," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt0xs9c8p6, University of California Transportation Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt0xs9c8p6

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Brownstone, D. & Kazimi, C., 1995. "Competing Risk Hazard Models for Demographic Transitions," Papers 94-95-26, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
    2. Calfee, John E., 1985. "Estimating the demand for electric automobiles using fully disaggregated probabilistic choice analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 287-301, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hoen, Anco & Koetse, Mark J., 2014. "A choice experiment on alternative fuel vehicle preferences of private car owners in the Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-215.
    2. Yamamoto, Toshiyuki & Kitamura, Ryuichi, 2000. "An analysis of household vehicle holding durations considering intended holding durations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 339-351, June.
    3. Soora Rasouli & Harry Timmermans, 2016. "Influence of Social Networks on Latent Choice of Electric Cars: A Mixed Logit Specification Using Experimental Design Data," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 99-130, March.
    4. Kurani, Kenneth S. & Turrentine, Thomas & Sperling, Daniel, 2001. "Testing Electric Vehicle Demand in "Hybrid Households" Using a Reflexive Survey," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt0xf006kd, University of California Transportation Center.

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    Social and Behavioral Sciences;


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