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A Dynamic Forecasting System for Vehicle Markets with Clean-Fuel Vehicles

  • Bunch, David S
  • Brownstone, David
  • Golob, Thomas F
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    This research deals with demand for automobiles and light-duty and medium-duty trucks. Planners concerned with energy consumption, air quality and the provision of transportation facilities must have dependable forecasts of vehicle ownership and use from both the residential (personal-use vehicle) sectors and the fleet (commercial and governmental sectors). As long as vehicles evolved slowly, it was possible to base such forecasts on extrapolations of observed demand. However, in an era of increasing environmental awareness, mandated in part by the US Clean Air Act Amendments (US EPA, 1990), government agencies are now concerned with promoting clean-fuel vehicles; vehicle manufacturers are faced with designing and marketing clean-fuel vehicles; and suppliers of fuels other than gasoline must plan infrastructure and pricing policies.

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    Paper provided by University of California Transportation Center in its series University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers with number qt0xs9c8p6.

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    Date of creation: 28 Mar 1995
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt0xs9c8p6
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    1. Brownstone, D. & Kazimi, C., 1995. "Competing Risk Hazard Models for Demographic Transitions," Papers 94-95-26, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
    2. Calfee, John E., 1985. "Estimating the demand for electric automobiles using fully disaggregated probabilistic choice analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 287-301, August.
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