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The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets

  • Gallo, Giampiero M.
  • Granger, Clive W.J.
  • Jeon, Yongil

We analyze the properties of multiperiod forecasts which are formulated by a number of companies for a fixed horizon ahead which moves each month one period closer and are collected and diffused each month by some polling agency. Some descriptive evidence and a formal model suggest that knowing the views expressed by other forecasters the previous period is influencing individual current forecasts in the form of an attraction to conform to the mean forecast. There are two implications: one is that the forecasts polled in a multiperiod framework cannot be seen as independent from one another and hence the practice of using standard deviations from the forecasts' distribution as if they were standard errors of the estimated mean is not warranted. The second is that the forecasting performance of these groups may be severely affected by the detected imitation behavior and lead to convergence to a value which is not the "right" target (either the first available figure or some final values available at a later time).

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number qt1w33d4b2.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt1w33d4b2
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  1. John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, 02.
  2. Swanson Norman, 1996. "Forecasting Using First-Available Versus Fully Revised Economic Time-Series Data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, April.
  3. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1998. "Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-81, March.
  4. Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-73, Sept.-Oct.
  5. David E. Runkle, 1998. "Revisionist history: how data revisions distort economic policy research," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 3-12.
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