Fund managers respond to the payoff gradient by continuously adjusting leverage in our analytic and simulation models. The base model has a stable equilibrium with classic properties. However, bubbles and crashes occur in extended models incorporating an endogenous market risk premium based on investors' historical losses and constant-gain learning. When losses have been small for a long time, asset prices inflate as fund managers increase leverage. Then slight losses can trigger a crash, as a widening risk premium accelerates deleveraging and asset price declines.
|Date of creation:||22 Oct 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (831) 459-2743
Fax: (831) 459-5077
Web page: http://www.escholarship.org/repec/ucscecon/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
- Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1982. "Price Dynamics Based on the Adjustment of Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 1088-96, December.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Egenter, E. & Lux, T. & Stauffer, D., 1999. "Finite-size effects in Monte Carlo simulations of two stock market models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 250-256.
- Levy, H & Markowtiz, H M, 1979. "Approximating Expected Utility by a Function of Mean and Variance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 308-17, June.
- P. Young, 1999. "The Evolution of Conventions," Levine's Working Paper Archive 485, David K. Levine.
- Diane Del Guercio & Paula A. Tkac, 2000. "The determinants of the flow of funds of managed portfolios: mutual funds versus pension funds," Working Paper 2000-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Young, H Peyton, 1993. "The Evolution of Conventions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 57-84, January.
- Chevalier, J. & Ellison, G., 1996.
"Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives,"
96-3, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
- Judith A. Chevalier & Glenn D. Ellison, 1995. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," NBER Working Papers 5234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989.
"Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation,"
NBER Working Papers
2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O. O., 2005.
"Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types,"
Journal of Mathematical Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 7-42, February.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2002. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 1996.
"The Theory of Learning in Games,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
624, David K. Levine.
- Stephen F. Le Roy, 2004. "Rational Exuberance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 783-804, September.
- Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Friedman, Daniel, 1997. "Individual Learning in Normal Form Games: Some Laboratory Results," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 46-76, April.
- Friedman, Daniel & Ostrov, Daniel N., 2008. "Conspicuous consumption dynamics," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 121-145, September.
- Youssefmir, Michael & Huberman, Bernardo A & Hogg, Tad, 1998. "Bubbles and Market Crashes," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 97-114, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt3905j8kq. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.