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Using the Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) Planning Toolbox to Understand Market Growth in California

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  • Davis, Adam W
  • Tal, Gil

Abstract

Accurately predicting the spatial distribution and charging demand of future electric vehicles is vital to directing investment in charging infrastructure and planning policy interventions. To date, this expansion has been heavily concentrated in wealthy cities and suburbs, among commuters, and among households able to charge their vehicles at home. The expansion of EV ownership will include both changes in where the vehicles are owned as well as how they are used and charged. This paper demonstrates methods to predict where the expansion of electric vehicle ownership is likeliest to occur under current market characteristics and allow for testing of scenarios of future characteristics. These methods are demonstrated with an analysis of California, using a scenario of 4 million battery electric vehicles and 1 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, to match the state’s goal of 5 million zero-emission vehicles by 2030. These projections are combined with a model for charging behavior to generate scenarios of demand for charging away from home under various fleet characteristics and identify areas of the state with the greatest need for infrastructure investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Davis, Adam W & Tal, Gil, 2022. "Using the Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) Planning Toolbox to Understand Market Growth in California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt5v336527, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5v336527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Javid, Roxana J. & Nejat, Ali, 2017. "A comprehensive model of regional electric vehicle adoption and penetration," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 30-42.
    2. Jenn, Alan & Springel, Katalin & Gopal, Anand R., 2018. "Effectiveness of electric vehicle incentives in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 349-356.
    3. Sierzchula, William & Bakker, Sjoerd & Maat, Kees & van Wee, Bert, 2014. "The influence of financial incentives and other socio-economic factors on electric vehicle adoption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 183-194.
    4. White, Lee V. & Sintov, Nicole D., 2017. "You are what you drive: Environmentalist and social innovator symbolism drives electric vehicle adoption intentions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 94-113.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jenn, Alan, 2023. "Emissions of electric vehicles in California’s transition to carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).

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