IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v322y2022ics030626192200650x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electric vehicle market potential and associated energy and emissions reduction benefits

Author

Listed:
  • Dai, Ziyi
  • Liu, Haobing
  • Rodgers, Michael O.
  • Guensler, Randall

Abstract

In this paper, a methodological framework is proposed to assess the potential of electric vehicle (EV) penetration and corresponding reduction in energy use and emissions in Georgia, U.S., using 2017 National Household Travel Survey data. A two-phase, data-driven model assesses the potential for household purchases of EVs and the assignment of EVs to household trips. Households sharing the highest similarities are selected as candidates for EV purchases, with household trips identified as EV-amenable or not. Potential EV-purchasing families were also matched to specific EV makes and models. Energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and criteria air pollutants were analyzed and compared for all original trips and for those trips that shifted to EVs. By comparing against two traditional averaging methods, the framework demonstrates an advancement that helps to avoid the overestimation of EV benefits. By integrating household-level demographics and trip-level attributes from open-source travel survey data in EV adoption and trip assignment, this paper demonstrates the benefits associated with EV adoption (a potential 45% reduction in energy consumption and 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions), moreover, the proposed methodology could serve as an innovative framework that is scalable and transferable to predict the future market penetration and actual on-road EV activities under various contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Dai, Ziyi & Liu, Haobing & Rodgers, Michael O. & Guensler, Randall, 2022. "Electric vehicle market potential and associated energy and emissions reduction benefits," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:322:y:2022:i:c:s030626192200650x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119295
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192200650X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119295?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rachana Vidhi & Prasanna Shrivastava, 2018. "A Review of Electric Vehicle Lifecycle Emissions and Policy Recommendations to Increase EV Penetration in India," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, February.
    2. Javid, Roxana J. & Nejat, Ali, 2017. "A comprehensive model of regional electric vehicle adoption and penetration," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 30-42.
    3. Xu, Xiaodan & Aziz, H.M. Abdul & Liu, Haobing & Rodgers, Michael O. & Guensler, Randall, 2020. "A scalable energy modeling framework for electric vehicles in regional transportation networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    4. Adedamola Adepetu & Srinivasan Keshav, 2017. "The relative importance of price and driving range on electric vehicle adoption: Los Angeles case study," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 353-373, March.
    5. Langbroek, Joram H.M. & Franklin, Joel P. & Susilo, Yusak O., 2016. "The effect of policy incentives on electric vehicle adoption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 94-103.
    6. Daina, Nicolò & Sivakumar, Aruna & Polak, John W., 2017. "Modelling electric vehicles use: a survey on the methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 447-460.
    7. Ho, Daniel & Imai, Kosuke & King, Gary & Stuart, Elizabeth A., 2011. "MatchIt: Nonparametric Preprocessing for Parametric Causal Inference," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 42(i08).
    8. Karabasoglu, Orkun & Michalek, Jeremy, 2013. "Influence of driving patterns on life cycle cost and emissions of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicle powertrains," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 445-461.
    9. Krupa, Joseph S. & Rizzo, Donna M. & Eppstein, Margaret J. & Brad Lanute, D. & Gaalema, Diann E. & Lakkaraju, Kiran & Warrender, Christina E., 2014. "Analysis of a consumer survey on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 14-31.
    10. Smith, William J., 2010. "Can EV (electric vehicles) address Ireland’s CO2 emissions from transport?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 4514-4521.
    11. Sierzchula, William & Bakker, Sjoerd & Maat, Kees & van Wee, Bert, 2014. "The influence of financial incentives and other socio-economic factors on electric vehicle adoption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 183-194.
    12. Liao, Fanchao & Molin, Eric & Timmermans, Harry & van Wee, Bert, 2019. "Consumer preferences for business models in electric vehicle adoption," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 12-24.
    13. Lévay, Petra Zsuzsa & Drossinos, Yannis & Thiel, Christian, 2017. "The effect of fiscal incentives on market penetration of electric vehicles: A pairwise comparison of total cost of ownership," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 524-533.
    14. Chen, Chien-fei & Zarazua de Rubens, Gerardo & Noel, Lance & Kester, Johannes & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2020. "Assessing the socio-demographic, technical, economic and behavioral factors of Nordic electric vehicle adoption and the influence of vehicle-to-grid preferences," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qingbo Tan & Zhuning Wang & Wei Fan & Xudong Li & Xiangguang Li & Fanqi Li & Zihao Zhao, 2022. "Development Path and Model Design of a New Energy Vehicle in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chenlei Xue & Huaguo Zhou & Qunqi Wu & Xueying Wu & Xingbo Xu, 2021. "Impact of Incentive Policies and Other Socio-Economic Factors on Electric Vehicle Market Share: A Panel Data Analysis from the 20 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-12, March.
    2. Patyal, Vishal Singh & Kumar, Ravi & Kushwah, Shiksha, 2021. "Modeling barriers to the adoption of electric vehicles: An Indian perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    3. Elena Higueras-Castillo & Sebastian Molinillo & J. Andres Coca-Stefaniak & Francisco Liébana-Cabanillas, 2020. "Potential Early Adopters of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in Spain—Towards a Customer Profile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Krishnan, V. Vijai & Sreekumar, M., 2023. "An integrated behavioral approach to analyze the adoption of electric vehicles in the context of a developing country," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 162-172.
    5. Almeida Neves, Sónia & Cardoso Marques, António & Alberto Fuinhas, José, 2019. "Technological progress and other factors behind the adoption of electric vehicles: Empirical evidence for EU countries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 28-39.
    6. Saiful Hasan & Terje Andreas Mathisen, 2020. "Policy measures for electric vehicle adoption. A review of evidence from Norway and China," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(1), pages 25-46.
    7. Biresselioglu, Mehmet Efe & Demirbag Kaplan, Melike & Yilmaz, Barbara Katharina, 2018. "Electric mobility in Europe: A comprehensive review of motivators and barriers in decision making processes," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-13.
    8. Schwab, Julia & Sölch, Christian & Zöttl, Gregor, 2022. "Electric Vehicle Cost in 2035: The impact of market penetration and charging strategies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    9. Goel, Pooja & Kumar, Aalok & Parayitam, Satyanarayana & Luthra, Sunil, 2023. "Understanding transport users' preferences for adopting electric vehicle based mobility for sustainable city: A moderated moderated-mediation model," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    10. Qianwen Li & Ruyin Long & Hong Chen & Jichao Geng, 2017. "Low Purchase Willingness for Battery Electric Vehicles: Analysis and Simulation Based on the Fault Tree Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-20, May.
    11. Zhang, Junjie & Jia, Rongwen & Yang, Hangjun & Dong, Kangyin, 2022. "Does electric vehicle promotion in the public sector contribute to urban transport carbon emissions reduction?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 151-163.
    12. Kumar, Ravi & Lamba, Kuldeep & Raman, Avinash, 2021. "Role of zero emission vehicles in sustainable transformation of the Indian automobile industry," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    13. Sarmad Zaman Rajper & Johan Albrecht, 2020. "Prospects of Electric Vehicles in the Developing Countries: A Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-19, March.
    14. Dai, Ziyi & Rodgers, Michael O & Guensler, Randall, 2023. "Hybrid EV and Pure BEV Owners: A Comparative Analysis of Household Demographics, Travel Behavior, and Energy Use," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt5w91q6bc, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    15. Xiao, Xu & Chen, Zi-Rui & Nie, Pu-Yan, 2020. "Analysis of two subsidies for EVs: Based on an expanded theoretical discrete-choice model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    16. Madhusudhan Adhikari & Laxman Prasad Ghimire & Yeonbae Kim & Prakash Aryal & Sundar Bahadur Khadka, 2020. "Identification and Analysis of Barriers against Electric Vehicle Use," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-20, June.
    17. Shahid, Muhammad & Ullah, Kafait & Imran, Kashif & Masroor, Neha & Sajid, Muhammad Bilal, 2022. "Economic and environmental analysis of green transport penetration in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    18. Moon-Koo Kim & Jong-Hyun Park & Kyungsoo Kim & Byoungkyu Park, 2020. "Identifying factors influencing the slow market diffusion of electric vehicles in Korea," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 663-688, April.
    19. Alali, Layla & Niesten, Eva & Gagliardi, Dimitri, 2022. "The impact of UK financial incentives on the adoption of electric fleets: The moderation effect of GDP change," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 200-220.
    20. Higueras-Castillo, Elena & Kalinic, Zoran & Marinkovic, Veljko & Liébana-Cabanillas, Francisco J., 2020. "A mixed analysis of perceptions of electric and hybrid vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:322:y:2022:i:c:s030626192200650x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.