IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/globco/qt63z4m8qw.html

International Financial Institutions and the Promotion of Autocratic Resilience

Author

Listed:
  • Cottiero, Christina
  • Schneider, Christina J

Abstract

International financial institutions (IFIs) are often perceived as engines of economic and political liberalization. Yet, despite their outsized influence in shaping the development trajectories of recipient nations, the lending strategies of IFIs dominated by authoritarian regimes remain underexplored. We argue that autocratic IFIs are not merely neutral economic actors; rather, they strategically allocate aid to reinforce authoritarian resilience. Our analysis reveals that these institutions disproportionately channel funds to authoritarian governments confronting acute domestic or international challenges to their rule, such as coup risk, political conflict, or democratic mobilization. We introduce a comprehensive, original dataset tracking the lending behavior of 20 autocratic IFIs across 143 recipient countries from 1967–2021. Our findings uncover a striking pattern: aid flows from autocratic IFIs increase precisely when authoritarian regimes are most vulnerable. By situating these insights within the broader aid allocation literature, we provide a fresh perspective on the political calculus of international development lending, with profound implications for understanding global power dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Cottiero, Christina & Schneider, Christina J, 2025. "International Financial Institutions and the Promotion of Autocratic Resilience," Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series qt63z4m8qw, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:globco:qt63z4m8qw
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/63z4m8qw.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pevehouse, Jon & Russett, Bruce, 2006. "Democratic International Governmental Organizations Promote Peace," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 969-1000, October.
    2. Laeven, Luc & Valencia, Fabian, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: A Timely Update in COVID-19 Times," CEPR Discussion Papers 14569, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Hernandez, Diego, 2017. "Are “New” Donors Challenging World Bank Conditionality?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 529-549.
    4. Kohno, Masaru & Montinola, Gabriella R. & Winters, Matthew S., 2023. "Foreign pressure and public opinion in target states," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    5. Hernandez, Diego & Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2017. "Politics of religiously motivated lending: An empirical analysis of aid allocation by the Islamic Development Bank," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 910-929.
    6. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    7. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2009. "Global horse trading: IMF loans for votes in the United Nations Security Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 742-757, October.
    8. Axel Dreher & Peter Nunnenkamp & Rainer Thiele, 2008. "Does US aid buy UN general assembly votes? A disaggregated analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 139-164, July.
    9. Christopher Kilby, 2011. "Informal influence in the Asian Development Bank," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 223-257, September.
    10. Gehring, Kai & Kaplan, Lennart C. & Wong, Melvin H.L., 2022. "China and the World Bank—How contrasting development approaches affect the stability of African states," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    11. Vreeland,James Raymond & Dreher,Axel, 2014. "The Political Economy of the United Nations Security Council," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521740067, January.
    12. Maria J. Debre, 2022. "Clubs of autocrats: Regional organizations and authoritarian survival," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 485-511, July.
    13. Pevehouse, Jon C., 2002. "Democracy from the Outside-In? International Organizations and Democratization," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(3), pages 515-549, July.
    14. Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Ward, Michael D., 2006. "Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 911-933, October.
    15. Axel Dreher & Matthew Gould & Matthew Rablen & James Vreeland, 2014. "The determinants of election to the United Nations Security Council," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 51-83, January.
    16. Mansfield, Edward D. & Pevehouse, Jon C., 2006. "Democratization and International Organizations," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 137-167, January.
    17. Oka, Natsuko, 2009. "Ethnicity and Elections under Authoritarianism: The Case of Kazakhstan," IDE Discussion Papers 194, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    18. Daniela Donno, 2013. "Elections and Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(3), pages 703-716, July.
    19. Clist, Paul, 2011. "25Years of Aid Allocation Practice: Whither Selectivity?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 1724-1734.
    20. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2012. "Do the IMF and the World Bank influence voting in the UN General Assembly?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 363-397, April.
    21. Copelovitch,Mark S., 2010. "The International Monetary Fund in the Global Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521143585, November.
    22. Gandhi,Jennifer, 2008. "Political Institutions under Dictatorship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521897952, November.
    23. Ben Cormier, 2023. "Chinese or western finance? Transparency, official credit flows, and the international political economy of development," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 297-328, April.
    24. Copelovitch,Mark S., 2010. "The International Monetary Fund in the Global Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521194334, November.
    25. Benjamin A. T. Graham & Jacob R. Tucker, 2019. "The international political economy data resource," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 149-161, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christina Cottiero & Emilie M. Hafner-Burton & Stephan Haggard & Lauren Prather & Christina J. Schneider, 2025. "Illiberal regimes and international organizations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 231-259, June.
    2. Cottiero, Christina & Hafner-Burton, Emily & Haggard, Stephan & Prather, Lauren & Schneider, Christina J, 2024. "Illiberal Regimes and International Organizations," Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series qt2bx6b98g, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California.
    3. Lauren L. Ferry & Emilie M. Hafner-Burton & Christina J. Schneider, 2020. "Catch me if you care: International development organizations and national corruption," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 767-792, October.
    4. Hugo Oriola & Jamel Saadaoui, 2024. "How do geopolitical interests affect financial markets reaction to international institution projects?," Working Papers hal-04648446, HAL.
    5. Schlumberger, Oliver, 2021. "Puzzles of political change in the Middle East: Political liberalisation, authoritarian resilience and the question of systemic change," IDOS Discussion Papers 5/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    6. Strand, Jonathan R. & Zappile, Tina M., 2015. "Always Vote for Principle, Though You May Vote Alone: Explaining United States Political Support for Multilateral Development Loans," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 224-239.
    7. Dreher, Axel & Lang, Valentin F. & Richert, Katharina, 2019. "The political economy of International Finance Corporation lending," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 242-254.
    8. Yoram Z. Haftel & Bar Nadel, 2024. "Economic crises and the survival of international organizations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 665-690, October.
    9. Dreher, Axel & Jensen, Nathan M., 2013. "Country or leader? Political change and UN General Assembly voting," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 183-196.
    10. Dreher, Axel & Lang, Valentin & Reinsberg, Bernhard, 2024. "Aid effectiveness and donor motives," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    11. Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati & Yuanxin Li & Samuel Brazys & Alexander Dukalskis, 2019. "Building Bridges or Breaking Bonds? The Belt and Road Initiative and Foreign Aid Competition," Working Papers 201906, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    12. Vaclav Vlcek, 2023. "Who cares about the UN General Assembly? National delegations size from 1993 to 2016," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(2), pages 349-360, May.
    13. Jeffry Frieden & Stefanie Walter, 2019. "Analyzing inter-state negotiations in the Eurozone crisis and beyond," European Union Politics, , vol. 20(1), pages 134-151, March.
    14. Axel Dreher & Valentin F. Lang & B. Peter Rosendorff & James Raymond Vreeland, 2018. "Buying Votes and International Organizations: The Dirty Work-Hypothesis," CESifo Working Paper Series 7329, CESifo.
    15. Kern, Andreas & Nosrati, Elias & Reinsberg, Bernhard & Sevinc, Dilek, 2023. "Crash for cash: Offshore financial destinations and IMF programs," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Luca Papi & Andrea F Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2015. "IMF Lending and Banking Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(3), pages 644-691, November.
    17. Bau, Nicolas & Dietrich, Simone, 2025. "What geopolitical returns does ODA bring?," Kiel Working Papers 2305, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    18. Thomas Stubbs & Bernhard Reinsberg & Alexander Kentikelenis & Lawrence King, 2020. "How to evaluate the effects of IMF conditionality," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 29-73, January.
    19. Iasmin Goes, 2023. "Examining the effect of IMF conditionality on natural resource policy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 227-285, March.
    20. Presbitero, Andrea F. & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2012. "IMF Lending in Times of Crisis: Political Influences and Crisis Prevention," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1944-1969.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:globco:qt63z4m8qw. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://escholarship.org/uc/igcc/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.