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Did COVID-19 vaccinations increase GDP growth?

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Meng

    (University of Bristol)

  • Paczos, Wojtek

    (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University)

Abstract

Yes. We estimate the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on economic growth in OECD countries using forecast errors in quarterly real GDP growth. These forecasts were published at the end of 2020, before vaccines were approved or widely anticipated, making them a credible benchmark to identify the economic impact of vaccination. We find that an additional 10 vaccine doses per 100 people in a given quarter leads to 0.5 percentage points higher annualized GDP growth. The effect is stronger when measuring full vaccination: 10 additional fully vaccinated individuals per 100 people lead to a 1.5 percentage point increase in annual growth on average.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Meng & Paczos, Wojtek, 2025. "Did COVID-19 vaccinations increase GDP growth?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2025/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2025/23
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Masia, Neal A. & Smerling, Jonathan & Kapfidze, Tendayi & Manning, Richard & Showalter, Mark, 2018. "Vaccination and GDP Growth Rates: Exploring the Links in a Conditional Convergence Framework," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 88-99.
    2. Maloney,William F. & Taskin,Temel, 2020. "Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity during COVID-19 : A Global View," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9242, The World Bank.
    3. Li, Shi & Li, Meng & Fu, Rongsha, 2024. "A sustainable pandemic response: The impact of COVID-19 vaccination coverage on economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 316-332.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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