IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbkrpb/152797.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Recovery from the Pandemic Crisis : Balancing Short-Term and Long-Term Concerns

Author

Listed:
  • Loayza,Norman V.
  • Sanghi,Apurva
  • Shaharuddin,Nurlina Binti
  • Wuester,Lucie Johanna

Abstract

The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic crisis combines the worst characteristics of previous crises. It features a simultaneous supply and demand shock; domestic, regional, and global scope; a projected long duration; and a high degree of uncertainty. What can be expected for recovery from the pandemic crisis across the world? This brief first assesses the projections of economic activity in 2020 and 2021 and the domestic and international conditions that will constrain and drive a possible recovery. It then discusses the potential shapes of the recovery (or lack thereof) for specific country conditions. Finally, it explores the need to balance short-term and long-term concerns, arguing in favor of policies that focus on sustained recovery, rather than quick but debt-fueled and short-lived gains. Drawing on the lessons from past crises, the brief concludes that sustained economic recovery is possible only when the underlying causes are addressed and the foundations of growth are protected. For the pandemic crisis, this implies mitigating the spread of the disease to manageable levels while keeping the economy sufficiently active. In the short term, economic policy should focus on preventing further poverty, averting unnecessary business closures, and avoiding lasting damage to human capital and productivity. In the long term, policy reform should address the structural vulnerabilities that the pandemic crisis has exposed. This includes reforms to expand labor and business formalization; to improve the coverage and adequacy of social protection; to extend financial inclusion to elderly, rural, and poor people; to promote digital transformation across society; and, most basically, to improve access to and quality of public health care.

Suggested Citation

  • Loayza,Norman V. & Sanghi,Apurva & Shaharuddin,Nurlina Binti & Wuester,Lucie Johanna, 2020. "Recovery from the Pandemic Crisis : Balancing Short-Term and Long-Term Concerns," Research and Policy Briefs 152797, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbkrpb:152797
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/461391599582188306/pdf/Recovery-from-the-Pandemic-Crisis-Balancing-Short-Term-and-Long-Term-Concerns.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Norman V. Loayza & Steven Pennings, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19," World Bank Publications - Reports 33540, The World Bank Group.
    2. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Yavuz Arslan & Gong Cheng & Richhild Moessner, 2020. "The fiscal response to the Covid-19 crisis in advanced and emerging market economies," BIS Bulletins 23, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. World Bank, 2019. "Finance for Growth," World Bank Publications - Reports 33563, The World Bank Group.
    4. Loayza,Norman V. & Pennings,Steven Michael, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19 : A Primer for Developing Countries," Research and Policy Briefs 147291, The World Bank.
    5. World Bank, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic [Pandémie De Covid-19]," World Bank Publications - Reports 33696, The World Bank Group.
    6. Loayza,Norman V., 2020. "Costs and Trade-Offs in the Fight Against the COVID-19 Pandemic : A Developing Country Perspective," Research and Policy Briefs 148535, The World Bank.
    7. Maloney,William F. & Taskin,Temel, 2020. "Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity during COVID-19 : A Global View," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9242, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kraemer-Eis, Helmut & Botsari, Antonia & Gvetadze, Salome & Lang, Frank & Torfs, Wouter, 2020. "European Small Business Finance Outlook 2020: The impact of COVID-19 on SME financing markets," EIF Working Paper Series 2020/67, European Investment Fund (EIF).
    2. Elżbieta Kacperska & Jakub Kraciuk, 2021. "Changes in the Stock Market of Food Industry Companies during the COVID-19 Pandemic—A Comparative Analysis of Poland and Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-17, November.
    3. Silvia Muzi & Filip Jolevski & Kohei Ueda & Domenico Viganola, 2023. "Productivity and firm exit during the COVID-19 crisis: cross-country evidence," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1719-1760, April.
    4. Islamaj,Ergys & Le,Duong Trung & Mattoo,Aaditya, 2021. "Lives versus Livelihoods during the COVID-19 Pandemic : How Testing Softens the Trade-off," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9696, The World Bank.
    5. Shirov, A., 2021. "The pandemic crisis: The mechanisms of development and solutions for economic policy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 209-216.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hausmann, Ricardo & Schetter, Ulrich, 2022. "Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic: Poverty, fiscal space, policy, and welfare," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Ricardo Hausmann & Ulrich Schetter, 2020. "Horrible Trade-offs in a Pandemic: Lockdowns, Transfers, Fiscal Space, and Compliance," CID Working Papers 382, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    3. Jacob, Jannet Farida & Chakraborty, Lekha, 2021. "COVID-19 and Public Investment for Children: The case of Indian State of Karnataka," Working Papers 21/355, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Loayza,Norman V., 2020. "Costs and Trade-Offs in the Fight Against the COVID-19 Pandemic : A Developing Country Perspective," Research and Policy Briefs 148535, The World Bank.
    5. Polyzos, Stathis & Samitas, Aristeidis & Kampouris, Ilias, 2021. "Economic stimulus through bank regulation: Government responses to the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Yusuph Lameck Mashala & Lazaro Alman Kisumbe & Manumbu Hezron Daudi, 2020. "Preparedness of the Local Community in the Fight Against COVID-19 in Dodoma Urban, Tanzania," Journal of Public Administration and Governance, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(3), pages 172187-1721, December.
    7. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Pavel Kotyza & Irena Benešová & Adriana Laputková, 2020. "Shaking Stability: COVID-19 Impact on the Visegrad Group Countries’ Financial Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, August.
    8. Biswas, Debajyoti & Alfandari, Laurent, 2022. "Designing an optimal sequence of non‐pharmaceutical interventions for controlling COVID-19," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1372-1391.
    9. Adesoji O. Farayibi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "The Economic Consequences of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Nigeria," Working Papers 20/042, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    10. Garcia, D & Granda, C, 2019. "Informalidad, ciclos económicos y política fiscal: una exploración de los nexos," Documentos de trabajo - Alianza EFI 18984, Alianza EFI.
    11. Sène, Babacar & Mbengue, Mohamed Lamine & Allaya, Mouhamad M., 2021. "Overshooting of sovereign emerging eurobond yields in the context of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    12. Albert G. Zeufack & Cesar Calderon & Gerard Kambou & Calvin Z. Djiofack & Megumi Kubota & Vijdan Korman & Catalina Cantu Canales, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, No. 21, Spring 2020 [Africa's Pulse]," World Bank Publications - Reports 33541, The World Bank Group.
    13. Emanuele Colombo Azimonti & Luca Portoghese & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Covid-19 supply-side fiscal policies to escape the health-vs-economy dilemma," DEM Working Papers Series 208, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    14. Gallego, J & Prem, M & Vargas, J. F, 2020. "Corruption in the times of pandemia," Documentos de Trabajo 18178, Universidad del Rosario.
    15. Didier, Tatiana & Huneeus, Federico & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Financing firms in hibernation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    16. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini & Gianluigi Cisco & Maria Ferrara & Elisabetta Marzano, 2020. "Lockdown Policies: A Macrodynamic Perspective for Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 8465, CESifo.
    17. Zheng, Chen & Zhang, Junru, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on the efficiency of microfinance institutions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 407-423.
    18. Zairu Nisha & Sachin Kumar & Saibal K. Pal & Jagvinder Singh & Ompal Singh, 2022. "Insights and reflections using data analytics approach of COVID-19 situation among the Indian states and ethical considerations," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(1), pages 131-142, February.
    19. Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2020. "Deconstructing Sustainable Livelihood Framework (SLF) for Equitable Living in Crisis of Global Pandemic," MPRA Paper 101977, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 May 2020.
    20. Auliya A. Suwantika & Neily Zakiyah & Ajeng Diantini & Rizky Abdulah & Maarten J. Postma, 2020. "The Role of Administrative and Secondary Data in Estimating the Costs and Effects of School and Workplace Closures due to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Data, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbkrpb:152797. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.