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Economic Costs of Distancing Policy Interventions

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  • Rácz, Olivér Miklós

Abstract

Distancing policy interventions (DPIs) were aimed at containing the COVID-19 pandemic, but they also likely affected economic activity. This paper estimates the effects of DPIs on selected indicators of monthly economic activity, such as industrial and manufacturing production, construction output, retail trade, inflation, and unemployment. The main contribution of this paper is the isolation of the causal effects of distancing interventions from the effects of voluntary distancing. I use mobility data as a measure of distancing to identify DPI effects on mobility in a regression discontinuity design, specifically as immediate changes in distancing right after the intervention. This strategy identifies the unobserved voluntary component of distancing as well, which is a key control variable in the identification of the economic effects of DPIs. I find significant output losses due to DPIs, but no evidence for inflationary or unemployment effects. Results also show that although voluntary distancing caused significant output losses, their effect was an order of magnitude smaller than that of DPIs.

Suggested Citation

  • Rácz, Olivér Miklós, 2023. "Economic Costs of Distancing Policy Interventions," Corvinus Economics Working Papers (CEWP) 2023/04, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    • Handle: RePEc:cvh:coecwp:2023/04
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    File URL: https://unipub.lib.uni-corvinus.hu/8157/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; non-pharmaceutical interventions; causal identification; regression-discontinuity-in-time;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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