Socioeconomic conditions and contagion dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic with and without mitigation measures: Evidence from 185 countries

It is well documented that COVID-19 contagion and mortality rates differed systematically across countries. Less is known, however, on whether these differences could be explained by socioeconomic conditions that may determine both the extent to which individuals voluntarily take protection measures in the absence of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) or comply with imposed NPIs, when these are in place. Using data from 185 countries, we examine associations of COVID-19 infection and mortality dynamics with socioeconomic conditions, as measured by poverty rates, in periods before and after NPIs have been imposed. We find that, in the initial period of the pandemic, when no NPIs were in place, daily growth of COVID-19 cases and deaths are positively associated with the share of the population living in poverty, whereas, in the following period, when NPIs were implemented, these associations turn negative. We argue that these results could be explained by the fact that NPIs are expected to be more effective in countries with high poverty rates where voluntary physical distancing is low and physical distancing practices are more responsive to imposed measures.