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Seasonal Cycles in the Housing Market

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Abstract

The housing market exhibits a puzzling yet repetitive seasonal boom and bust cycle where prices and trade volume rise in summers and fall in winters. This paper presents a search model that analytically generates the observed deterministic cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Selcuk, Cemil, 2012. "Seasonal Cycles in the Housing Market," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2012/1
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    File URL: http://carbsecon.com/wp/E2012_1.pdf
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    1. Mark Bagnoli & Ted Bergstrom, 2005. "Log-concave probability and its applications," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(2), pages 445-469, August.
    2. L. Rachel Ngai & Silvana Tenreyro, 2014. "Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 3991-4026, December.
    3. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-990, October.
    4. Ferraris, Leo & Watanabe, Makoto, 2008. "Collateral secured loans in a monetary economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 405-424, November.
    5. Ferraris, Leo & Watanabe, Makoto, 2011. "Collateral fluctuations in a monetary economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(5), pages 1915-1940, September.
    6. John Thanassoulis & David Gill, 2010. "The Optimal Marketing Mix of Posted Prices, Discounts and Bargaining," Economics Series Working Papers 479, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
    8. Asher Wolinsky, 1988. "Dynamic Markets with Competitive Bidding," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 71-84.
    9. John L. Goodman, Jr., 1993. "A Housing Market Matching Model of the Seasonality in Geographic Mobility," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(1), pages 117-138.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Seasonality in house prices
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-05-09 19:29:00

    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing; search; thin and thick markets; seasonality;

    JEL classification:

    • D39 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Other
    • D49 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Other
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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